Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis: Gold prices had surged to notable highs previously but have recently witnessed a retreat. The recent resurgence in gold prices was primarily fueled by the weakening of the US dollar, prompted by disappointing US PMI data. Concurrently, investors have been seizing opportunities to buy during price dips.

Technical Analysis: Examining the daily chart of gold, it's evident that technical indicators have been exhibiting a gradual decline, albeit unevenly, hovering around the midpoint. This movement follows a period of extreme overbought conditions. Despite this, the gold price remains positioned above the bullish moving average, finding recent support at approximately $2310 per ounce, as indicated by the 20-day moving average. Notably, the resistance level is anticipated to be around $2305.

USDJPY

Forecast: Decline

Fundamental Analysis: The USDJPY pair has recently hit a record high price, exceeding the Bank of Japan's intervention level set around $152 in October 2022, marking a peak not seen in over 30 years. Given this development, investors should remain vigilant for potential intervention actions from the Bank of Japan during its upcoming meeting this week.

Technical Analysis: Looking at the technical indicators, investors may consider initiating long positions targeting $160. However, it's essential to monitor closely for any signs of intervention by the Bank of Japan, which could prompt a retracement back towards the $151 level.

SPX500

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis: In terms of the SPX500, the current trajectory of the US economy appears to be on a positive upswing. March's US house sales have exceeded expectations, surpassing the anticipated 669,000 with a notable figure of 693,000.

Technical Analysis: Despite a recent minor setback, indicative of the resilience of the US economy, the SPX500 is poised for further growth. We anticipate the market to continue its upward trajectory, potentially reaching a peak of $5286 before any significant retracement occurs.

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