Market Analysis
XAUUSD
Technical Analysis:
Continuation Bullish / Upward
Demand Level: 2360.37 - 2366.47
Today's gold prediction tends to be initially bearish and then strong upward movement, following a previous trend of significant price fluctuations. This fluctuation is influenced by investors' heightened interest in gold due to concerns regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, which remains a focal point due to its potential impact on a third world war. Although Israel has successfully retaliated against Iran, the impact remains uncertain regarding the onset of a third world war, as the retaliation had a relatively low impact. Therefore, this situation needs close monitoring. The potential for upward trend is also supported by Israel's attacks, contributing to gold's rise, with this potential likely to continue and possibly reach new highs for gold prices. This prediction and analysis are supported by trend analysis and candlestick analysis.
Fundamental Analysis:
Gold futures traded higher during Asian trading on Friday. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, June gold futures were trading at $2.00 per troy ounce at the time of writing, up 0.03%. The instrument had previously traded at a session high of USD per troy ounce. Gold is likely to find support at $2,340.20 and resistance at $2,433.00. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures, which monitors the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.07% and traded at $106.06. Meanwhile, on Comex, May silver fell 0.36% and traded at $28.28 per troy ounce, while May copper fell 0.29% and traded at $4.42 per pound.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,374.31 per ounce, while gold futures expiring in June edged up slightly to $2,389.05 per ounce at 00:21 WIB (04:21 GMT). Spot prices fell 0.9% on Wednesday, experiencing some profit-taking after surging to record highs of over $2,340 per ounce last week.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis
Bearish Reversal / Downward
Supply Level: 154.586 - 154.738
Previous predictions for the USD indicated a downward trend, which was in line with expectations. However, after the decline, prices tended to rise again. Yet, this increase is only temporary, and there is still potential for further declines based on analysis. Additionally, the yen still has the potential for an uptrend as the price has reached an overbought point and may potentially decline significantly against the USD, which needs to be noted. Predictively, based on resistance and support, prices have not yet broken through the resistance, indicating potential downward movement. There is no significant news for today.
Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY pair fell by 0.2%, but still remained near a 34-year high reached this week. Both the yen and the dollar experienced some inflows due to several media reports indicating that Israel launched several drone strikes against Iran on Friday, resulting in explosions in several parts of Iran, Syria, and Iraq. Although initial reports indicated attacks near locations with Iranian nuclear facilities, Iranian news agencies stated that there was no damage to these facilities. However, this move marks a potential escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict and may signal worsening geopolitical conditions in the Middle East. This idea boosts demand for safe-haven assets such as the dollar and yen while weighing on most risk-based assets.
GBPUSD
Technical Analysis:
Bullish Reversal
Demand Levels: 1.24771 - 1.24649
The prediction for Pound Sterling suggests a tendency for prices to rise due to strong signs of rejection in the candlestick pattern and a noticeable upward trend, indicating a high potential for reversal. Although there was a prior decline, the current trend appears to be upward.
The significant strengthening of Pound Sterling is also attributed to the inability of prices to fall back to oversold levels and show signs of potential downturn. Despite the earlier morning prediction, the current position may reverse from a downward to an upward pattern.
Currently, there is news release on "Retail Sales" related to Pound Sterling, which has shown negative results, followed by a potential increase after the release of this news.
Fundamental Analysis:
The prediction for Pound Sterling at the moment continues to indicate an increase, with price fluctuations in the range of 0.28% - 0.32%. However, it's essential to be cautious as this strengthening prediction is only temporary and warrants attention.
The influence of the previous decline is still deceptive, as it contributes to the current upward bias in prices. The ongoing tensions between Russia and Europe continue to escalate, contributing to market volatility, much like before. This suggests that market movements are becoming increasingly volatile.
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