Euro Edges Up; Traders Eye U.S.–China Talks, EU Tariffs

Market Overview

Japan
 
Japanese government bond yields rose by 8.5 basis points on expectations that the BOJ might raise interest rates soon. However, the yen showed only a mild reaction, and market sentiment remained cautious due to the potential resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba and rising domestic political risks.

The Japanese market surged after President Trump announced a trade agreement with Tokyo, which includes reducing auto tariffs to 15% and Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. The Nikkei 225 jumped 2.9%, led by auto stocks such as Mazda (+17%) and Toyota (+13%).
 
China

The offshore yuan hovered around 7.17/USD in a narrow range as markets monitored new developments in China–U.S. trade relations. The PBOC kept lending rates unchanged, supporting exchange rate stability amid stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth.

China’s Minister of Commerce urged the U.S. to act responsibly and avoid a tariff war. Meanwhile, Conflux launched a CNY-pegged stablecoin, aiming to boost long-term liquidity. Investors are awaiting the upcoming Politburo meeting, hoping for supportive policies, though major stimulus measures are seen as unlikely.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin saw a slight correction of 0.48%, retreating to around $119,000 after reaching an all-time high. On-chain data signals mixed sentiment: BTC balances on exchanges have increased (indicating profit-taking pressure), while a decline in UTXOs suggests long-term capital remains optimistic.

The key support level at $116,400 is being closely monitored. ETF inflows have reached $50 billion year-to-date, with $18 billion coming in since April alone. Square’s trial of BTC payments via the Lightning Network and a shift in sentiment among critics continue to reinforce the medium-term bullish outlook.
 
Technical Analysis

The uptrend remains intact, as price continues to hold above the EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 lines.There were some earlier signs of mild bearish divergence (RSI declining while price moved sideways or slightly up), suggesting a potential short-term correction.
 
Volume has decreased following the breakout to $123,000, indicating that buying momentum is slowing down.

EURUSD

Fundamental Analysis

The EUR/USD exchange rate hovered around 1.1739 after rising 0.5% in the previous session, supported by a weakening USD amid falling U.S. bond yields and concerns over the impact of tariff measures. The U.S.–Japan trade deal has somewhat eased market fears, though negotiations with the EU remain uncertain as the August 1 deadline approaches.

Investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S.–China meeting in Stockholm next week. Amid ongoing uncertainty, the euro is seeing modest gains, but its long-term trend will largely depend on the outcomes of major trade negotiations.
 
Technical Analysis

Price has just broken above the previous resistance area around 1.1716 and is currently undergoing a mild pullback after approaching the overhead supply zone.

The EMA 34 and EMA 89 are sloping upward, indicating that buying pressure remains dominant.
 
RSI is around 66 — near overbought territory but not excessively stretched. This suggests that bullish momentum still has room to continue, though a short-term correction may occur

Gold Spot(XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices dipped slightly by 0.24% to around $3,420/oz, ending a three-day winning streak. The decline was driven by a series of trade agreements the U.S. signed with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, which reduced gold’s appeal as a safe haven. President Trump announced a new 15% tariff—lower than the previously planned 25%—on imports from Japan, while Japan agreed to open its markets and invest $550 billion in the U.S.

However, caution remains in the market as negotiations with the EU have stalled, and fears over a potential "no-deal" scenario are mounting.
 
Technical Analysis

Gold is currently in a short-term uptrend after breaking through the supply zone around $3,380.
 
Current price: approximately $3,421 — undergoing a mild pullback after a strong upward move. Price has reached a key resistance level at $3,440, which should be closely monitored.
 
RSI is around 69, approaching overbought territory. A short-term correction may occur around this area, especially if RSI surpasses 70 and bearish divergence appears.

 

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