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Tariff Fears Drive Dollar Lower Ahead of Easter Weekend

Mellissa · 17 Apr132.1K 견해

The dollar was on track for a fourth consecutive weekly loss on Thursday as tariffs continued to drive investors away from U.S. assets. However, it did recover slightly from a seven-month low against the yen, following U.S.-Japan trade talks that avoided any currency-related discussions.

The dollar has been struggling amid ongoing tariff threats, delays, and impositions, eroding investor confidence in the stability and growth prospects of the U.S. economy.

The Swiss franc has been the top performer among G10 currencies, gaining 8% since April 2. It tested a decade-high resistance of 0.81 per dollar, trading at 0.8151. The euro and yen have also risen about 5% against the dollar in just over two weeks.

The euro eased slightly to $1.1373 in the Asian session but remains poised for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, despite the European Central Bank expected to cut rates by 25 basis points later in the day.

The dollar hit a seven-month low of 141.62 yen earlier but bounced back above 142 after Japan's economy minister stated that currency discussions were not on the agenda during the trade talks. While the yen had gained ahead of the meetings, its advances may unwind if no agreement is reached.

The dollar index was holding at 99.5, indicating it was also set to lose for the fourth straight week, with trade volume expected to dip due to the upcoming Easter holidays.

Despite U.S. retail sales rising sharply and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaling no immediate rate cuts, the pressure on the dollar persists.

Analysts at Citi noted that while the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status is not at risk, the global trend of reducing U.S. asset exposure could weigh heavily on the dollar this year. Citi projects the euro to reach as high as $1.20 within the next six to 12 months, before the dollar could potentially recover.

The dollar's decline has already pushed the New Zealand dollar out of its recent range, and it is also nearing a breakout for the Australian dollar. The kiwi traded at $0.5932, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, though it struggled to advance further. The Aussie was at $0.6367, awaiting upcoming employment data. The British pound remained stable at $1.3216, held back by a weaker-than-expected inflation report.