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시장 분석시장 분석

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Pershing Square Returns to Netflix With Six New Stock Bets

Jennifer · 412.1K 견해

Article 2Pershing Square Discloses Six New Investments

Pershing Square, the investment firm led by billionaire investor Bill Ackman, disclosed new positions in Netflix and five other publicly traded companies as it reshaped its concentrated equity portfolio.

The six additions were:

  • Netflix.
  • Visa.
  • Mastercard.
  • S&P Global.
  • Intercontinental Exchange.
  • Alcon.

The investments in Netflix, Visa, Mastercard and S&P Global were initiated during the second quarter of 2026. Pershing Square added Intercontinental Exchange and Alcon after 30 June.

The disclosure represents an unusually active period for Ackman, whose firm generally operates a concentrated portfolio and holds investments for extended periods.

The six additions suggest that Pershing Square is prioritising companies with recurring revenue, strong competitive positions and the potential to compound earnings over several years.

Netflix Returns to Pershing Square’s Portfolio

The most closely watched addition was Netflix, marking Pershing Square’s return to the streaming company following an unsuccessful investment in 2022.

The firm held approximately 3.15 million Netflix shares as of 30 June 2026. The position represented about 4.9% of its disclosed portfolio.

Pershing Square invested more than $1 billion in Netflix in early 2022 after the company’s shares declined sharply. However, the fund exited the position only a few months later and realised a loss exceeding $400 million after Netflix reported its first subscriber decline in more than a decade.

The latest investment indicates that Ackman’s assessment of the company has changed substantially since that exit.

Pershing Square said Netflix had effectively won the competition among major global streaming platforms. The firm expects revenue to increase at a double-digit rate while content costs grow more slowly, potentially supporting further margin expansion.

Netflix’s Business Has Changed Since 2022

The investment case for Netflix has evolved since Pershing Square’s previous position.

The company has expanded its advertising-supported subscription plan, strengthened its response to password sharing and placed greater emphasis on profitability and free-cash-flow generation.

Potential drivers of Netflix’s future performance include:

  • Subscriber growth in international markets.
  • Expansion of the advertising business.
  • Higher revenue from paid account sharing.
  • Improved content-spending efficiency.
  • Growth in operating margins.
  • Stronger free-cash-flow generation.
  • Selective price increases.
  • Live entertainment and sports-related programming.

Pershing Square estimated that Netflix could generate an annual earnings-per-share growth rate of approximately 19% over the next three to five years.

The firm valued Netflix at approximately 21 times forward earnings based on its estimates as of 30 June.

These figures represent Pershing Square’s projections rather than guaranteed results. Netflix remains exposed to content costs, competition, subscriber expectations and changes in consumer spending.

Visa and Mastercard Add Payment-Sector Exposure

Pershing Square also initiated positions in Visa and Mastercard, two of the world’s largest electronic-payment networks.

Both companies benefit from the continuing transition from cash to digital transactions. Their networks connect consumers, financial institutions and merchants without generally taking the same direct credit risk as traditional lenders.

The investment case may be supported by:

  • Long-term growth in digital payments.
  • Expansion of e-commerce.
  • Increasing cross-border transaction volumes.
  • High operating margins.
  • Strong free-cash-flow generation.
  • Extensive global payment networks.
  • Share repurchases and dividends.

Pershing Square estimated three-to-five-year earnings-per-share growth of approximately 16% for Visa and 18% for Mastercard.

Its estimated forward valuations were around 23 times earnings for Visa and 24 times for Mastercard.

The positions also carry risks. Payment networks may face regulatory pressure over transaction fees, competition from alternative payment systems and weaker cross-border volumes during an economic slowdown.

S&P Global and ICE Strengthen Financial-Data Exposure

The additions of S&P Global and Intercontinental Exchange give the portfolio greater exposure to financial data, benchmarks, ratings and market infrastructure.

S&P Global operates businesses covering credit ratings, financial-market data, commodity intelligence and major equity indices.

Intercontinental Exchange owns and operates exchanges, clearing infrastructure, financial-data services and the New York Stock Exchange.

These businesses can benefit from:

  • Recurring subscription revenue.
  • Demand for market data and analytics.
  • Increased issuance of corporate debt.
  • Growth in derivatives trading.
  • Greater financial-market volatility.
  • Regulatory requirements for transparent pricing and risk management.
  • High barriers to entry.

Pershing Square estimated annual earnings-per-share growth of approximately 15% over the next three to five years for both companies.

It valued S&P Global at approximately 19 times forward earnings and Intercontinental Exchange at about 17 times based on its respective calculations.

Trading activity can increase during periods of volatility, potentially supporting exchange revenue. However, weaker debt issuance, reduced transaction volumes or regulatory changes could affect future performance.

Alcon Adds Healthcare Diversification

Alcon provides Pershing Square with exposure to the global eye-care market.

The company develops and sells surgical equipment, intraocular lenses, contact lenses and other vision-care products.

Pershing Square expects Alcon to benefit from long-term demand created by ageing populations, increased access to eye care and continued innovation in surgical and contact-lens products.

The investment firm also expects Alcon’s margins to improve through greater use of its fixed-cost base and manufacturing efficiencies in the contact-lens business.

Pershing Square estimated that Alcon could generate mid-teens earnings growth, including an approximately 16% annual earnings-per-share growth rate over three to five years.

The position was valued at approximately 18 times forward earnings based on Pershing Square’s average acquisition cost.

Relevant risks include manufacturing execution, product-development costs, currency movements, regulatory requirements and competition within the eye-care market.

Microsoft Remains the Largest Holding

Although six new companies entered the portfolio, Microsoft remained Pershing Square’s largest disclosed holding.

The firm held approximately 1.52 million Microsoft shares, representing around 12.4% of the portfolio.

Uber Technologies was the second-largest position, with approximately 7.63 million shares and a portfolio weighting of about 12%.

Meta Platforms was another major holding, with approximately 913,501 shares.

The wider portfolio also included companies such as:

  • Brookfield Corporation.
  • Amazon.
  • Restaurant Brands International.
  • Howard Hughes Holdings.
  • Fannie Mae.
  • Freddie Mac.

Pershing Square exited its investments in Alphabet and Universal Music Group during the first half of 2026. It subsequently exited Hertz in July.

The Portfolio Remains Highly Concentrated

Pershing Square’s investment strategy differs from that of a broadly diversified index fund.

The firm typically invests in a relatively small group of businesses where it believes there is a large difference between the current market price and long-term business value.

This concentration can increase potential returns when investment decisions perform well. It can also amplify losses when individual companies underperform.

The rapid addition of six companies broadens the portfolio across several industries:

  • Streaming and digital entertainment.
  • Electronic payments.
  • Credit ratings and financial data.
  • Exchanges and market infrastructure.
  • Medical technology and eye care.

Despite this sector diversification, performance may remain sensitive to the valuation of high-quality US growth companies.

Pershing Square Expects Faster Portfolio Growth

Pershing Square estimated that its portfolio companies could generate average annual earnings-per-share growth of approximately 20% over the next three to five years.

The firm estimated that the portfolio traded at an average of about 19 times forward earnings.

For comparison, Pershing Square estimated that companies in the S&P 500 would produce approximately 12% annual earnings growth while trading at around 20 times forward earnings.

The firm therefore believes its portfolio combines stronger expected growth with a slightly lower valuation than the broader index.

These comparisons rely on Pershing Square’s internal estimates and assumptions. Actual earnings growth, valuations and investment returns may differ materially.

Market Reaction May Extend Beyond Netflix

Pershing Square’s disclosures are closely followed because Ackman has a history of taking concentrated positions and publicly explaining his investment reasoning.

The new holdings may attract additional investor attention to all six companies, particularly Netflix because of the fund’s previous loss and subsequent return to the stock.

However, a disclosed institutional investment should not be treated as a guarantee that a stock will rise.

The positions were accumulated before the public disclosure, meaning current market prices may differ from Pershing Square’s average acquisition costs.

Investors should also remember that reported holdings provide an incomplete picture. They may not include:

  • Short positions.
  • Some derivatives and hedges.
  • Transactions completed after the reporting date.
  • Exact investment prices.
  • Changes made before publication.

What Traders Should Monitor Next

  • Pershing Square’s detailed explanation of each new position.
  • Netflix subscriber, advertising and margin growth.
  • Netflix content expenditure and free cash flow.
  • Cross-border payment volumes at Visa and Mastercard.
  • Regulatory developments affecting payment-network fees.
  • Debt issuance and ratings activity at S&P Global.
  • Trading and clearing volumes at Intercontinental Exchange.
  • Alcon’s margin-expansion progress.
  • Future changes in Pershing Square’s concentrated portfolio.
  • Valuations across high-quality US growth stocks.
  • US interest rates and Treasury yields.
  • Broader movements in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Market Outlook

The return to Netflix is the most prominent part of Pershing Square’s latest portfolio update, but the broader message extends beyond one streaming company.

The addition of Visa, Mastercard, S&P Global and Intercontinental Exchange indicates a preference for businesses with strong networks, recurring revenue and important positions within the global financial system.

Alcon introduces a healthcare component supported by structural demand for vision-care products, while Netflix provides exposure to global entertainment and advertising growth.

The new investments may strengthen confidence in the selected companies, but traders should distinguish Pershing Square’s long-term investment strategy from short-term market signals.

Future performance will depend on whether the companies deliver the earnings growth and margin expansion assumed in Pershing Square’s valuation analysis.

 

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