BTC/USD Eyes Key Support at $105K After Recent Pullback
Market Overview
Australia
The Australian dollar weakened to around $0.656 as markets priced in a 95% chance that the RBA will cut rates by 25 basis points in July, bringing the cash rate down to 3.60%.
Downward pressure stems from weaker-than-expected consumer spending and a drop in June manufacturing PMI to a four-month low. Interest rates could fall further to 3.10% or even 2.85% by year-end if growth continues to slow.
China
The Chinese yuan (CNY) rose to an eight-month high at 7.1538/USD, supported by USD weakness amid concerns over Trump’s proposed $3.3 trillion spending and tax cut package.
However, the PBoC continues to manage CNY’s gains by directing state-owned banks to buy USD, aiming to limit sharp appreciation that could hurt exports. Meanwhile, the CFETS Index fell to 95.15, its lowest since 2021, indicating that despite CNY’s rise against the USD, its overall trade-weighted strength remains weak as the euro and other major currencies have gained more.
Bitcoin(BTCUSD)
Fundamental Analysis
Bitcoin is hovering around $107,000, maintaining a bullish structure after rebounding from the $105,500 support. While it has yet to break the $108,000 resistance, the medium-term outlook remains positive amid stable sentiment ahead of the upcoming U.S. jobs report.
On the policy front, Binance emphasized the government's role in fostering the crypto ecosystem. Bhutan stands out with its crypto-based tourism payment program and holdings of over 12,000 BTC.
Technical Analysis
BTC/USD remains in a weak uptrend, but recent price action shows signs of fading momentum as it pulls back toward the EMA 200 and a key supportive Order Block.
RSI is around 37.5, nearing the oversold zone. While no bullish divergence is present yet, a reaction may occur if RSI drops closer to 30.
The recent decline came with moderate volume, indicating that selling pressure is not yet decisive.
Key focus now is on volume behavior around the $105,000 – $104,800 support zone to assess the potential for a rebound or further breakdown.
EURUSD
Fundamental Analysis
The euro is holding near a 3.5-year high against the USD, supported by market expectations that the Fed will cut rates amid tariff impacts and political pressure. At the ECB Forum in Portugal, Fed Chair Powell maintained a data-dependent stance and did not rule out a rate cut as early as July.
The ECB also emphasized a data-driven approach, while President Lagarde warned of AI-driven misinformation risks. The weaker USD and dovish signals from major Western central banks are contributing to positive sentiment toward the euro.
Technical Analysis
Price is currently trading above all three EMAs (34, 89, and 200), indicating a clear uptrend. The structure shows higher highs and higher lows, confirming bullish momentum.
RSI is holding above 60, suggesting buying pressure remains dominant, though it's not yet in overbought territory.
However, trading volume has slightly declined in recent candles, signaling a possible short-term consolidation or pullback phase..
Gold Spot(XAUUSD)
Fundamental Analysis
Gold edged down to around $3,330/oz after a strong rally yesterday, as geopolitical tensions eased with Israel agreeing to a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza.However, concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and trade instability—including Trump’s threat to impose a 35% tariff on Japan—continue to support gold.
Trump’s $3.3 trillion spending package has passed the Senate. Investors now await the upcoming U.S. jobs report to gauge the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July or September.
Technical Analysis
Currently, XAU/USD is recovering from the recent low near $3,245 but showing signs of stalling at the $3,340–$3,360 resistance zone.
The short-term trend is in a recovery phase following a sharp drop from the $3,380–$3,400 peak, but the previous resistance zone is acting as a strong barrier.
Volume increased during the rebound toward resistance, but price has failed to break previous highs, suggesting that buying momentum is facing headwinds at this level.
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