Bitcoin & Ethereum's Price Recovery Supported by Whale Activity
Market Overview
China
The Chinese yuan strengthened to a four-week high, trading around 7.16/USD, supported by improved global risk sentiment following the U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
The CNY gained from a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of geopolitical stability, but the rally is seen as “passive” and limited, given China’s sluggish domestic recovery and ongoing uncertainties in U.S.–China trade talks. While supported by the PBoC’s strong fix at 7.1656, gains are seen as limited due to China’s slow recovery and U.S.–China trade uncertainties. Further upside depends on real economic improvement.
United States
U.S. stocks rallied on the Israel–Iran ceasefire and a sharp drop in oil prices. The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, Nasdaq +1.4%, and Dow Jones +1.2%, nearing record highs. WTI crude fell 5.2% to $64.97 as supply fears eased.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained cautious, saying more data is needed before adjusting rates, amid stable growth but lingering inflation from tariffs.
Housing and consumer confidence data weakened in June. The 10-year yield fell to 4.3%, signaling continued expectations for policy easing. Investor sentiment is positive but watchful of new data and Fed actions.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Fundamental Analysis
On-chain, whale activity is increasing, especially on Bybit—often a precursor to price rallies after periods of low liquidity.
For Ethereum, two whales have placed leveraged bets exceeding $100 million as ETH rebounds from the $2,100 zone, showing strong conviction despite Middle East geopolitical tensions. Market sentiment remains mixed, but smart money is already positioning ahead.
Technical Analysis
BTC has rebounded strongly from the demand zone at $98,240–$97,766, breaking decisively above the EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200, and is now heading toward retesting a key resistance area.
The clean break above the EMA 200 supports a strong recovery trend. Volume spiked significantly around the $98,240 level, confirming genuine buying interest. Recent bullish candles have been accompanied by high volume, reinforcing the credibility of the breakout above the EMAs.
USDJPY
Fundamental Analysis
Japanese stocks saw mild movement, with the Nikkei edging up 0.1% thanks to gains in chip stocks like Tokyo Electron (+3.1%) and Kioxia (+2.8%). However, the Topix fell 0.2%, pressured by losses in financial and trade sectors.
The USD/JPY pair declined to 144.70 as the U.S. dollar weakened globally following the Middle East ceasefire and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields.
Technical Analysis
Price has formed a lower high around the 147.6 zone, followed by a sharp decline and is now trading below all three EMAs (34, 89, and 200).
The market structure has turned bearish, with a clear break below the EMAs accompanied by rising volume. Trading Volume: A large red candle with high volume appeared during the break of the EMA 200, confirming strong selling pressure
Gold Spot (XAUUSD)
Fundamental Analysis
Gold rose 0.24% to around $3,330/oz, rebounding from a two-week low as investors reassessed the durability of the Israel–Iran ceasefire.
A U.S. intelligence report indicated that the airstrikes only delayed Iran’s nuclear program by a few months, keeping geopolitical concerns
lingering.
Fed Chair Powell stated that tariffs could push inflation higher but did not rule out a possible rate cut in July — boosting gold’s appeal in a power interest rate environment.
Technical Analysis
Short-term Trend: Mild downtrend with a rebound from strong support.Price remains below the Bearish Order Blocks around $3,380 – $3,400, indicating continued selling pressure.
However, there's currently a bullish reaction from the EMA 200 support zone.Volume surged at the $3,294 low, confirming active dip-buying interest.
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