DXY Drops Following Ceasefire News and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
Market Overview
Europe
EUR/USD rose to $1.1567 as the USD weakened on expectations of a Fed rate cut, following dovish remarks from officials Bowman and Waller. Falling U.S. bond yields supported the euro’s rebound, with markets also anticipating a soft stance from Chair Powell in his upcoming testimony.
In the eurozone, preliminary June PMI data showed ongoing economic stagnation—services improved slightly, while manufacturing remained weak. However, the euro found support from safe-haven buying after news of a Middle East ceasefire.
WTI Crude Oil
Oil prices plunged over 9% to $66.24/barrel — a near two-week low — after President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. With supply disruption risks at the Strait of Hormuz temporarily eased, safe-haven demand weakened.
Global stock markets surged, while the USD continued to decline on easing geopolitical tensions. However, investors remain focused on upcoming remarks from Fed Chair Powell before Congress regarding future interest rate policy.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Fundamental Analysis
Bitcoin remains steady above $101,000 despite high volatility. On-chain data shows long-term holders are still accumulating, with no signs of major distribution. The declining Binary CDD indicates a healthy accumulation phase.
Meanwhile, after the shutdown of black-market platform Huione Guarantee, over 30 new platforms have emerged—led by Tudou Guarantee. Crypto flows into these markets are rising again, raising concerns over money laundering activities via Telegram.
Technical Analysis
The overall trend is sideways to slightly bearish, with progressively lower highs since the all-time high on May 22, 2025.
Currently, there are strong recovery signals from the demand zone at $98,240–$97,766, with price rebounding sharply from the key support level at $102,374.A spike in volume at the $98,240 bottom confirms strong buying interest from this support zone.
U.S Dollar Index (DXY)
Fundamental Analysis
The DXY fell to 98.2 after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, ending the "12-day war." The news triggered a rally in risk assets and weakened safe-haven demand for the USD.
The euro climbed to $1.1602, supported by peace prospects and falling oil prices, which benefit Europe. Additionally, dovish remarks from Fed officials Bowman and Waller boosted expectations of a rate cut in July, adding further downward pressure on the USD.
Technical Analysis
The downtrend remains dominant. The DXY continues to trade below all three key EMAs — 34, 89, and 200 — confirming that the long-term bearish momentum is intact.
Price was recently strongly rejected at the EMA 200 (~99.3), accompanied by a large bearish candle, signaling aggressive selling pressure. RSI is around 38, having dropped below the neutral 50 level but not yet into oversold territory (30), suggesting there is still room for further downside.
Gold Spot(XAUUSD)
Fundamental Analysis
Gold fell 0.55% to around $3,350/oz after President Trump announced a comprehensive ceasefire between Israel and Iran, weakening the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Markets are now shifting focus to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming two-day testimony before Congress for clues on future interest rate policy. In the short term, the key technical resistance zone for gold lies between $3,368 – $3,402.
Technical Analysis
Gold is in a short-term downtrend after peaking near $3,440. Price is now trading below the $3,380 resistance zone and is testing dynamic support at the EMA 200.
Trading Volume: A recent large red candle with high volume signals growing selling pressure. Recent rebounds have occurred on low volume, indicating weak buying conviction and a lack of reliable bullish momentum.
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