Gold Price Faces Short-Term Decline After Surge, $3,360 in Focus

Market Overview

China

The Chinese yuan (CNY) edged higher against the USD as the PBoC set its strongest daily fixing since March at 7.1695. A weaker U.S. dollar outlook, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and trade tensions, also supported sentiment for the yuan. The PBoC kept its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, following easing measures last month.

At the Lujiazui Forum, the PBoC governor pledged to advance the internationalization of the yuan. While China opposed Israel’s strikes on Iran, it offered no clear support.  Offshore CNY remained stable around 7.18, heading for a modest weekly gain.

Japan

Japanese markets came under pressure as U.S.–Iran tensions escalated. The Nikkei fell 0.9%, led by tech stocks like Advantest (-3.0%) and NEC (-2.4%). Investor sentiment turned cautious amid fears of Iranian retaliation, pushing Brent crude up 2.7% to $79.12 and USD/JPY to 146.48 as capital flowed into safe-haven assets.

Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) saw mild movement, caught between haven demand and inflation concerns from rising oil prices. While panic hasn’t set in, investors are closely watching the risk of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global energy chokepoint.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

The crypto market plunged after the U.S. airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations within 24 hours—mostly long positions. Bitcoin dropped below the key $100,000 level for the first time in 45 days, dragging major altcoins like ETH, SOL, XRP, and HYPE through key support zones.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for nine straight days, though outflows slowed over the weekend. The GMCI30 index fell nearly 10% on the week, with small-cap and AI tokens plunging up to 20%.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has broken below the key support zone around $102,374 and dropped sharply toward the deeper support area near $98,240.The price structure has shifted from sideways to a clear downtrend, with both lower highs and lower lows. 

The loss of the EMA 200 further confirms the bearish momentum.Volume surged as price approached $98,240, indicating potential dip-buying interest. However, if volume doesn’t hold up during the rebound, it may be just a technical pullback rather than a trend reversal.

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)

Fundamental Analysis

WTI crude surged over 2% to nearly $76/barrel — the highest since January — after the U.S. struck three Iranian nuclear sites, raising fears of retaliation and supply disruptions. 

Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of global oil flows, and its Parliament just voted to support shutting it down In a worst-case scenario, supply shocks could cut up to 18 million barrels per day. Oil rallied while Asian stocks and currencies like PHP, KRW, and THB came under pressure due to rising fuel import costs.

Technical Analysis

USOIL is currently in an uptrend, forming a clear Higher High – Higher Low structure since early June. After breaking through strong resistance around $72.00, price continued rising to $77.57, approaching the higher resistance zone at $77.80 – $80.52.

Trading Volume: Volume spiked during the rally toward $77.57, confirming bullish momentum. However, it has slightly declined during the current consolidation phase — a sign of a pause before the next directional move.

Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold hovered around $3,360/oz in early-week trading, reacting sharply to news that the U.S. conducted airstrikes on three major nuclear facilities in Iran. President Trump warned of further attacks if Tehran doesn’t back down, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict and fueling safe-haven demand for gold, which has already surged nearly 30% year-to-date.

This week, markets eye Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and key U.S. data including core inflation, jobless claims, and PMI to gauge policy impact from tariffs and conflict.

Technical Analysis

The trend has shifted to a short-term corrective decline following the previous strong rally.

The price structure has moved from a Higher High – Higher Low pattern to a sideways-to-down formation, as successive highs have repeatedly failed to break above the $3,380–$3,400 resistance zone, which has shown multiple Bearish Order Blocks (OB).

Currently, price is trading below the supply zone, indicating signs of short-term weakness.

 

 

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