Bitcoin Bullish Trend Continues, Eyes Resistance at $94,000
Market Overview
Gold
The global gold market is currently experiencing a slight correction after reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew his threat to dismiss Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, easing concerns about U.S. monetary policy. Additionally, positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations have reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. The recovery of the U.S. dollar
has also contributed to the decline in gold prices.
However, gold still maintains a strong upward trend this year, with a 30% increase since the beginning of the year. It is forecasted that in the long term, gold could surpass the $4,000 per ounce mark next year. Factors such as inflation, economic instability, and concerns about global growth continue to drive gold prices. Investors remain confident in gold as a hedge against uncertainty in the global economy.
China
China's market shows the offshore yuan stabilizing around 7.30 against the USD, amid optimism about easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at reducing the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, creating hope for resolving the trade conflict. China is also strengthening the use of the yuan in international transactions to promote the currency's internationalization.
However, the yuan remains under depreciation pressure due to concerns over escalating trade tensions with the U.S. China is working to expand trade with other countries to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs.
XAU/USD
Prediction: Decrease
Gold prices have decreased after reaching a record high of $3,500 in the previous session. This drop comes amid U.S. President Donald Trump retracting his threat to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and positive signs of reducing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, gold has maintained strong gains this year, up about 30%.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and the Impact from the Fed:
President Trump retracted his threat to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after criticisms about the Fed not cutting interest rates. This helped ease concerns about the Fed's independence and reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Although Trump no longer targets Powell, he also mentioned tax adjustments on Chinese goods in the U.S.-China trade deal, creating expectations for a more stable trade environment, which in turn reduces demand for gold.
Inflation and Market Drivers:
The decline in inflation concerns and the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks have led investors to reduce their gold investments. The U.S. dollar also rebounded after hitting a three-year low, making gold more expensive for foreign investors.
However, despite the current pullback, gold prices are still recording strong gains this year and are forecasted to surpass $4,000 next year according to JP Morgan predictions.
Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:
Market sentiment is shifting positively with hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal and a reduction in trade tensions, which lowers the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Nevertheless, gold continues to play an important role in hedging against global risks and instability.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
- $3,400.000: The nearest key resistance level
- $3,440.000: The next resistance level if prices continue their strong upward trend
- $3,500.000: The record high recently achieved during the price surge
Key Support Levels
- $3,298.400: The next support level below $3,338.280. If this level is breached, prices may continue to fall towards stronger support zones.
- $3,212.249: A strong support zone, if prices fall below this level, the trend may shift to a stronger bearish direction.
Technical Indicators:
RSI is currently at 46.97, indicating the market is not in an overbought condition, but may soon face downward pressure if RSI continues to decline below 40.
EMA: The EMA 34 and EMA 89 still indicate an upward trend; however, if prices break recent support levels, it could trigger a bearish reversal.
Price Action:
- Wait for price reactions at support levels like $3,338.280 and $3,300.000 to determine the next trading strategy.
- If prices hold above these levels, further buying opportunities may arise with a target at new resistance levels.
Gold is currently undergoing a mild correction after reaching record highs. However, with the geopolitical situation and economic factors such as Fed policies and U.S.-China trade relations, gold still has the potential to rise in the medium to long term.
BTC/USD
Prediction: Increase
Bitcoin is in a strong upward trend, with higher highs and higher lows, indicating a stable rally. After successfully testing the support at $88,000, the price has recovered and is currently trading above $92,500. The nearest resistance is at $93,500, and if this level is surpassed, the price could continue to rise towards $94,000 and potentially up to $95,000.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and the Impact from the Fed:
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has maintained a cautious monetary policy, causing the USD to weaken and creating favorable conditions for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin to rise. Low interest rates have persisted throughout 2025, particularly with the market expecting the Fed to either keep rates unchanged or even cut them again soon. This drives investors into growth assets like Bitcoin, rather than low-interest savings accounts.
Inflation and Market Drivers:
Inflation remains a global concern, especially in major economies like the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. government continues to face the challenge of increasing economic stimulus packages, which could keep inflation rates high. This further enhances Bitcoin's appeal as a "safe-haven asset," similar to gold, as investors worry about the depreciation of fiat currencies.
Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:
The financial markets are not only affected by economic factors but also by political events. The trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to escalate, particularly as the U.S.
government imposes additional tariffs on imports from China. This has caused many investors to turn to Bitcoin as a way to protect their assets from political and economic volatility.
Moreover, high-profile Bitcoin scams, such as the case involving Ramil Palafox (accused of defrauding $200 million through a crypto trading scheme), have caused turbulence in the crypto industry. However, despite these scandals, trust in Bitcoin remains strong due to its decentralized nature and its ability to safeguard assets from government monetary policies.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
- $94,000: The key resistance level if Bitcoin aims to continue its upward trend.
- $95,000: The next level to break for the price to move towards
- $96,500 and potentially higher.
Key Support Levels
- $92,000: The nearest support level where BTC could test and consolidate its upward movement.
- $90,150: A stronger support level that may hold the price if there's a short-term correction.
Technical Indicators:
RSI is at 79.86, indicating that Bitcoin is in the overbought zone, and there could be a correction if the upward momentum is not sustained. However, the RSI is still above 50, showing that the upward trend remains strong.
The current trading volume is relatively high, indicating active participation from investors. However, if the volume drops significantly, this could signal a potential correction.
Price Action:
- Wait for price reactions at important support levels like $92,000 and $90,150 to identify buy or sell points. If the price breaks through $94,000, the next target will be $95,000 and potentially $97,500.
Bitcoin is currently in a strong uptrend with clear support and resistance levels. While there are concerns about legal issues and potential short-term corrections due to the high RSI, the main trend remains bullish. Investors should closely monitor the support and resistance levels to identify suitable trading opportunities.
USOIL (WTI crude oil)
Prediction: Increase
WTI crude oil prices continue their strong upward trend after surpassing the $64 mark, with higher highs and higher lows observed in recent days. The strong support comes from fundamental factors, including new U.S. sanctions on Iran and a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories. Currently, prices are showing signs of correction after reaching $64.27, but the overall uptrend remains supported by both market and political factors.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
OPEC+ & Oil Supply:
OPEC+ continues to maintain its production cut policies to stabilize oil prices. With supply tightening due to sanctions on Iran, OPEC+ has stayed committed to reducing output to support prices. If this situation persists, the global supply tightness will continue to support oil prices in the long run.
The decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, along with industry reports of inventory reductions, indicates strong demand for oil, particularly from major economies like the U.S. and China. U.S. Tax Policy & Oil Demand:
U.S. sanctions on Iran, combined with the drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, have helped push oil prices higher. Forecasts suggest that inventory reductions could continue, reinforcing the upward trend in prices.
Geopolitics & Market Sentiment:
Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and U.S. sanctions have contributed to increased market instability. New U.S. sanctions on Iran have raised concerns about oil supply shortages from one of OPEC's largest producers. These measures could continue pushing oil prices higher in the near future.
Additionally, the market is supported by improved sentiment from trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, as well as positive statements from the Trump administration regarding relations with countries like Japan and India. Optimistic expectations surrounding these trade deals could boost global economic growth, further supporting oil demand.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
- $65.35: The next resistance level, near the EMA 200, is a key level in the short term. ● $67.03: A stronger resistance level, marking a higher point in the current uptrend.
- $68.80: The next resistance level; if prices continue to rise sharply, this could be the next target.
Key Support Levels
- $62.73: The main support level, near the Built OB (strong buy zone). If prices hold above this level, the uptrend could continue.
- $60.00: A strong support level, where prices may find support if the downtrend continues.
Technical Indicators:
RSI is currently at 56.13, indicating the market is not in an overbought condition, but if the RSI surpasses 70, it will be important to watch for signs of a correction.
Trading volume remains stable, indicating strong investor interest in crude oil. However, if volume decreases significantly, a price correction may occur.
Price Action:
- Wait for a price reaction at the support level of $62.73 to identify buying opportunities if prices rebound. Short-term price targets could be the resistance levels at $64.27 and $65.35.
- If prices break the $62.73 support, watch for lower levels like $60.00 and $58.00 to assess deeper corrections.
Disclaimer
Derivative investments involve significant risks that may result in the loss of your invested capital. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.
RISK WARNING IN TRADING
Transactions via margin involve leverage mechanisms, have high risks, and may not be suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be cautious of those who promise profits in trading. It's recommended not to use funds if you're not ready to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, make sure you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.
