BTC/USD Market Update: Accumulation Phase with Upside Potential

BTC/USD

Prediction: Accumulation – Potential Upside

Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, trading within a narrow range around $84,000 – $85,500. Despite a short-term dip below $85,000, the medium-term bullish structure remains intact thanks to strong support zones around $83,200 and $80,000. The main obstacle for a new uptrend is the resistance from the 200 EMA and the $85,500 – $85,800 zone.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary and Macro Policy:

Global markets remain affected by uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies. However, Bitcoin's price has remained relatively stable, reflecting the market's growing maturity.

Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's, are acting as "institutional whales", reducing volatility by absorbing large amounts of BTC from retail investors. This creates price stability and reinforces long-term confidence.

On-chain Data & Market Structure:

The "Supply in Profit" metric remains above 70%, a positive signal and a threshold that historically marks bull cycle territory. A rise back to the 80% level would confirm a strong bullish trend.

Long-term risks from quantum computing remain. However, events like the “Q-Day Prize” bring attention to potential future threats to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, slightly affecting market sentiment.

Market Sentiment & ETFs:

Institutional inflows via ETFs have helped stabilize Bitcoin’s price amid ongoing supply chain and political crises. Still, the market’s reliance on large institutions increases vulnerability if these “whales” decide to exit.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

●       $84,750 – $85,150: Short-term resistance based on Fibonacci and descending trendline.

●       $85,500 – $85,800: Strong resistance and recent local high. A breakout opens the path toward $86,400 – $88,000.

Key Support Levels

$83,200: Immediate support; price has rebounded multiple times here.

$82,200 – $81,500: Medium-term support; a breakdown may trigger a sharper decline.

$80,000: Strong psychological and technical support, aligning with accumulation and H4 demand zone.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: ~51.5 → Market is neutral, with no overbought/oversold signal.

EMA 34 – 89 – 200: Price is hovering around the 200 EMA (~$84,039). A clear breakout above it would confirm continued uptrend. EMA 89 and 34 serve as short-term support below.

Price Action:

• Price is consolidating near the confluence of multiple EMAs and support/resistance zones, indicating weak momentum and market hesitation.
• If price breaks above $85,500 with strong volume, it could trigger a rally toward $86,400 or higher.
• Conversely, a breakdown below $83,200 may lead to a retest of the $80,000 zone.
• Short-Term Strategy: Trade within the $83,200 – $85,500 range, favoring long positions near support and taking profit at resistance.
• Medium-Term Strategy: If price breaks above $85,800, consider trend-following long positions targeting $88,000+.

Closely monitor interest rate data, ETF flows, and the Supply in Profit indicator to adjust strategies accordingly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer

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