BTC/USD Price Action: Bearish Pressure Persists Despite Short-Term Rebound
Market Overview
European
The European market opened cautiously as investors closely monitored escalating global trade tensions. The European Union responded to the U.S.'s new tariff policies by proposing retaliatory duties while also pushing for negotiations with Washington. The euro edged higher, supported by expectations of a potential "zero-for-zero" tariff deal with the U.S.
Major regional stock indices, such as the DAX and STOXX 50, posted modest gains amid hopes for renewed diplomatic efforts between the U.S., Japan, and the EU. Although sentiment has somewhat stabilized, risks remain elevated due to uncertainty
surrounding U.S. policies and potential retaliation from China. Investors are also watching the European Central Bank (ECB) closely for signals on how it plans to address inflationary pressures and currency volatility.
Cryptocurrency
The crypto market is undergoing a sharp correction due to macroeconomic factors such as the new U.S. tariff policies and growing concerns over a potential global recession. Bitcoin has dropped more than 10% over the past two weeks, falling to the $74,000 range — its lowest level since November 2024. Altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have also plummeted significantly. Market sentiment has turned bearish, especially as the STH-SOPR indicator shows short-term holders are under pressure, although widespread capitulation has yet to occur.
Still, some analysts consider the $74,000 – $76,000 range a “green zone” for accumulation if this support level holds. Technical analysts also expect a possible rebound if BTC can break through the $81,500 – $82,500 resistance zone.
XAU/USD
Prediction: Decrease
Gold prices are showing signs of entering a prolonged corrective phase after reaching an all-time high of $3,167.57 on April 3. Currently, the price is fluctuating around the $2,996 – $3,000 range, experiencing a slight rebound after hitting the recent low at $2,956. The technical structure suggests that downside risks remain, as selling pressure has yet to subside and momentum indicators continue to weaken.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact
Investors are awaiting the release of the FOMC meeting minutes this Wednesday, as well as inflation data (CPI, PPI) on Thursday and Friday to gain clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy direction.
According to FEDWATCH data, the market is pricing in around 93 basis points of rate cuts from now until the end of 2025, offering medium- to long-term support for gold.
However, the daily MACD has crossed downward, signaling a potential end to the medium-term uptrend and raising the possibility of a deeper correction.
Inflation and Market Drivers
Former President Trump has threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods, while the EU has announced a 25% retaliatory measure—fueling fears of a global trade war, which typically supports safe-haven demand.
Despite this, gold has lost 6% in value over the past three sessions, indicating that safe-haven flows may have temporarily shifted to other assets such as strong currencies.
The market remains in a "wait-and-see" mode ahead of clearer economic signals this week.
Geopolitics and Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment remains fragile as Trump refuses to postpone tariffs for negotiation, escalating trade tensions.
While such tensions may drive safe-haven demand for gold, technical correction risks and profit-taking after a rapid price surge still dominate.
Some analysts (City Index, Oanda) warn of a potential multi-week correction if key support levels are breached.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $3,000: Psychological resistance zone and the 200 EMA on the H4 timeframe. Currently being tested.
● $3,025: Nearby technical barrier, aligned with a previous low—now acting as resistance.
● $3,038 – $3,057: Strong resistance cluster, aligned with the 34 and 89 EMAs.
Key Support Levels
● $2,980: Nearest support zone, aligned with the Bullish Order Block—currently being tested.
● $2,956: Short-term bottom—breaking below this level could trigger a deeper downtrend.
● $2,929 – $2,787: Medium-term support area in the event of an extended correction.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 38.39, showing a slight rebound from oversold levels but still below 50—indicating a short-term technical recovery without confirming a bullish reversal.
Trading Volume: During recent sharp declines, volume surged—indicating strong selling pressure. The most recent rebound came on lower volume, reflecting market hesitation.
Price Action:
● The price is currently retesting the 200 EMA near $3,000. A successful break and hold above this level could trigger a rebound toward $3,025 – $3,038.
● If the price fails and breaks below $2,956, the downtrend could extend toward deeper support at $2,929 – $2,834.
Gold is in a sensitive zone—caught between safe-haven demand driven by trade tensions and profit-taking/technical correction pressure. Investors should closely monitor the $2,956 and $3,000 levels, while awaiting CPI, PPI, and FOMC minutes this week to inform appropriate trading strategies.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Bitcoin remains in a medium-term downtrend with clearly lower highs and lower lows. After hitting a short-term bottom near the $74,409 area, the price has shown a technical rebound and is currently retesting the resistance zone around $80,000. However, selling pressure remains strong, and there are no signs of a sustainable trend reversal yet. Key resistance levels above must be breached before a new bullish phase can be confirmed.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Impact:
U.S. Tax Policy Impact: The Trump administration officially imposed a global 10% tariff starting April 5, with country-specific retaliatory tariffs rolling out from April 9. This has heightened fears of a global recession, leading to strong selling pressure across financial markets—including the crypto space.
Stock Market & Altcoin Sell-off: Bitcoin dropped over 7% in the past 24 hours, hitting its lowest level since November 2024. Altcoins fell even further, reflecting a broader pessimistic sentiment.
Investor Sentiment and Market Behavior:
Short-Term Holders (STH): According to CryptoQuant's STH-SOPR data, short-term investors are under pressure but have not yet reached full capitulation. This suggests further downside potential if selling accelerates.
Mixed Market Sentiment: Some analysts view the current price zone ($74,000 – $76,000) as a “green zone” — a potential accumulation opportunity, provided support holds.
Media Influence and Special Events:
Speculation about the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto is gaining traction after a lawyer filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, seeking documents believed to be related to Bitcoin’s creator. While this has no direct impact on price yet, it could improve transparency and long-term investor confidence.
Meanwhile, technical analysis has indicated a “Death Cross” on the daily chart — a bearish signal suggesting that a longer-term downtrend may still be developing.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $80,400 – $81,500: Immediate resistance zone where the descending trendline intersects with the 76.4% Fibonacci level. Price is currently testing this area.
● $85,593: Aligns with the 200 EMA — a strong technical resistance.
● $88,756: A major supply zone and Bearish Order Block (OB). If price rallies, this could be a major take-profit area.
Key Support Levels
● $78,000: Immediate support. A break below this level may intensify selling.
● $76,619: Critical static support — the “line in the sand” for short-term trend.
● $74,434 – $73,864: Recent lows and a strong support area. A break below this range could send BTC toward $70,000 or lower.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Rebounded from oversold territory to about 46.41, but still below the neutral 50 level — indicating a weak recovery and continued bearish pressure.
Volume: Trading volume has not significantly increased during the rebound, suggesting that buying interest remains tentative.
Price Action:
● A decisive break above $81,500 could extend the rebound toward $83,500 – $85,000.
● Conversely, if the price is rejected around $80,400 – $81,500, a pullback toward $78,000 – $76,000 becomes highly
EUR/USD
Prediction: Increase
The EUR/USD pair is maintaining a short-term uptrend after breaking out of the consolidation zone around 1.0785 and advancing toward the recent high at 1.11433. Currently, the price is undergoing a technical correction toward the support zone between 1.09461 and 1.08747. However, the market structure remains intact with higher highs and higher lows, indicating that the bullish trend is still valid. Traders should closely monitor price action around the 1.094 area to assess the potential for a recovery and continuation of the upward momentum.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:
The US dollar is under pressure as the market increasingly expects the Fed to potentially begin cutting interest rates as early as May 2025, driven by concerns of a global economic slowdown stemming from escalating trade tensions.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that while “hard” data remains stable, uncertainty and business sentiment are becoming more fragile. Still, he emphasized that the Fed requires clearer data before taking action, suggesting that monetary policy remains in a wait-and-see stance.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has recovered to 4.216% after hitting a 6-month low — partially easing pressure on the USD, though not yet strong enough to reverse its short-term weakness. Trade Developments and Market Sentiment:
Trade tensions between the US, China, and the EU have escalated following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imports. Both China and the EU have responded strongly, threatening retaliatory measures.
The euro has benefited from expectations that the EU may reach a “no-tariff agreement” with the US or at least maintain a balanced counterposition — increasing demand for the euro as a relatively safe asset.
Meanwhile, the USD’s traditional “safe haven” appeal is weakening, as investors turn to alternative risk-off assets such as the Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF).
Other Contributing Factors:
Market sentiment remains highly volatile, with the VIX index spiking as high as 60 — reflecting heightened investor sensitivity to news from the White House.
Asian equity markets have seen a slight recovery following a previous sell-off, indicating optimism that trade negotiations may resume.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● 1.11433: Most recent swing high. A breakout above this level could open the path to
1.12753.
● 1.10089: Short-term resistance — a level that previously triggered a strong price reaction before the current correction.
Key Support Levels
● 1.09461: Immediate support — currently being tested. Holding this level could allow the bullish trend to continue.
● 1.08747: Aligns with the 89 EMA — a strong dynamic support level.
● 1.07851 – 1.07207: Strong support zone, overlapping with a previous supply zone and the 200 EMA. A break below this range could signal a trend reversal.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 52.88, down from the overbought area (above 70), indicating that bullish momentum has cooled but no bearish divergence has emerged — suggesting potential for a rebound if support holds.
Volume: Strong volume during the prior upswing indicates capital inflow supporting the bullish trend.
Price Action:
● Current price action suggests that the market is seeking balance around the 1.094 zone. If a bullish reversal candlestick pattern emerges here, it could present a potential buy signal.
EUR/USD is currently supported by both technical and fundamental factors: the short-term uptrend remains intact, while the USD continues to weaken due to recession risks and deteriorating sentiment.
Nonetheless, risks remain from unexpected developments in the ongoing trade conflict. Traders should maintain strict risk management and monitor White House developments and Fed commentary closely in the near term.
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