EUR/USD Forecast: Cautious Trading Before Trump's Tariff Announcement
United States
The U.S. dollar held steady at 104.25
(DXY) ahead of President Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, potentially imposing 20% duties on most imports. Gold rose 0.7% to $3,132.43/oz, hovering near record highs amid safe-haven demand. March factory activity contracted for the first time this year, while input prices surged to the highest in nearly three years, highlighting inflationary pressure.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed slightly higher, while the Dow dipped. The 10-year Treasury yield slid to 4.133%, its lowest since March 4. Investors now await ADP and Nonfarm Payroll reports for clues on future Fed policy.
Australia
The Australian dollar rose to $0.63 despite global trade tensions, marking a second straight day of gains. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese downplayed U.S. tariff threats, noting that less than 5% of Australian exports go to the U.S. Instead, he emphasized economic opportunities in Asia, with China accounting for nearly 25% of exports, and strong prospects in India and Indonesia.
The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 4.1%, noting easing core inflation but maintaining caution. Industrial activity contracted in March, and markets are betting on a possible rate cut in May. Global uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment and commodity-linked currencies like the AUD.
EUR/USD
Prediction: Mild Downward Sideways
EUR/USD is currently in a short-term sideways trend after breaking out of a bearish channel (Bear OB). The price is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.078 – 1.080. Although selling pressure has temporarily eased, uncertainty ahead of the U.S. tariff policy announcement is keeping the market directionless. It's important to monitor price reactions at the EMA 89 support zone to assess whether a recovery can continue or if the pair will resume its downward trend.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
U.S. Trade Policy and Market Impact
The market's focus is currently on President Donald Trump's planned tariff announcement, expected at 20:00 GMT on April 2nd. The new tariffs could impose a 20–25% rate on most imported goods, rather than targeting specific countries. This raises concerns about a full-scale trade war.
If countries retaliate, escalating trade tensions may negatively impact global economic growth, including the Eurozone, thereby putting pressure on the EUR.
However, U.S. economic risks—including declining manufacturing data and a weakening labor market—are weighing on the USD, creating a balancing effect on EUR/USD.
Inflation, Interest Rates, and Economic Outlook
Recent reports show the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) has surged to its highest level in nearly three years, while manufacturing activity continues to decline. This raises fears of stagflation (high inflation combined with slow growth).
The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a sharp drop in new jobs, fueling expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025—this supports EUR/USD in the medium term.
Market Sentiment and Safe-Haven Flows
Investors are extremely cautious, with high volatility across stock, bond, and currency markets. Capital is flowing into safe-haven assets such as gold and JPY, while the USD is trading in a narrow, indecisive range.
Gold is hovering near its all-time high of $3,132/oz, reflecting heightened risk aversion and global political uncertainty—this could further weigh on the USD if safe-haven sentiment persists.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● 1.08747: Nearest resistance – recent swing high. A break above may open the path to
1.09342.
● 1.09342 – 1.10080: Strong medium-term resistance zone.
Key Support Levels
● 1.07886: Nearby support – aligns with EMA 89. A breakdown here increases the risk of a deeper drop.
● 1.07207: Medium-term support – near EMA 200, key late-March low.
● 1.06281 – 1.06016: Strong support zone – the last line of defense in the medium-term trend.
Technical Indicators:
EMA: EMA 34 and EMA 89 are flat, indicating market indecision. EMA 200 below at 1.0702 serves as a key long-term support.
RSI: At 46.97 – neutral, no overbought or oversold signals, confirming the market is in consolidation.
Price Action:
● Price is currently testing the 1.078 zone – EMA 89.
● If this zone holds, consider buying around 1.078 – 1.080 with targets near 1.087 – 1.093.
● If it breaks down, wait for a move to 1.072 or lower to look for a bottom-fishing opportunity.
EUR/USD is largely driven by investor sentiment ahead of Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement. Volatility may spike after 20:00 GMT today. Traders should:
● Trade cautiously before the tariff announcement.
● Watch price reactions around 1.078 – 1.080 to determine strategy: buy on bullish confirmation, or wait for a deeper drop for safer entry.
● Closely monitor inflation data and Fed speeches this week to adjust medium-term strategies.
BTC/USD
Prediction: Recovery – Awaiting Uptrend Confirmation
Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery after bouncing from a strong support zone around $80,000. However, the uptrend is not fully confirmed yet, as the price is facing significant resistance around $85,500. A successful breakout above this level could lead BTC to higher targets such as $86,650 and $88,000. Conversely, failure to break through could trigger a pullback.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior:
Short-term holders are shifting from panic selling to holding despite unrealized losses. Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant decline in selling pressure from wallets holding BTC for under six months, laying the groundwork for price stabilization and potentially the early stage of a new bullish cycle.
Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, suggests the current cycle's bottom may have formed around $77,000.
While the altcoin market remains highly volatile (e.g., NEO down over 35%), Bitcoin has held steady around $83,000–$85,000, indicating a shift in investor preference towards BTC during this risk-off phase.
Macro Factors and Alternative Assets:
Standard Chartered views Bitcoin as increasingly serving as an inflation hedge, likening it to the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks in the U.S. equity market.
Rising inflation concerns, especially with the potential return of Trump-era tariffs, are influencing investor sentiment and driving capital into BTC as a safe-haven asset.
BTC’s high correlation with the Nasdaq means it’s sensitive to macroeconomic swings, but also makes it more attractive to institutional investors.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $85,600: Nearest resistance level. A breakout here could open the door toward $88,756.
● $88,756: A higher resistance level that may pose a challenge if tested.
Key Support Levels
● $84,500: Nearest support, aligned with the ascending trendline on the H1 chart.
● $83,500: Stronger support, coinciding with the 100-period MA on H1 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
● $82,850 – $82,000: Deeper support zone if $83,500 is broken.
● $80,000: Strong support area where a Bullish Order Block has formed.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 57.66, above the neutral 50 level but not yet in overbought territory. This indicates room for further upside, but the move isn’t yet strongly confirmed. A move above 70 could signal a new bullish leg.
Trading Volume: No major spikes, indicating investors are still waiting for clearer confirmation before entering decisively.
Price Action:
● The price is consolidating just below the key resistance at $85,500.
● If a breakout occurs, traders can consider a momentum-buying strategy targeting $86,650–$88,000.
● If the price is rejected and pulls back, buying opportunities may arise near the $83,500 support or deeper if selling pressure returns.
USOIL – WTI Crude Oil
Prediction: Increase
WTI crude oil is in a clear uptrend after breaking out of a downtrend channel that started in late February. The price is currently fluctuating around $71.19, after reaching a short-term high of
$73.11. The price structure is forming higher highs and higher lows, and the upward slopes of the EMA34, EMA89, and EMA200 confirm the bullish trend remains valid. However, the recent price action suggests consolidation following a sharp rally, signaling investor caution due to macroeconomic uncertainties.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Trade Policy & Geopolitical Risks:
The oil market is under pressure from expectations of new tariffs set to be announced by President Trump on April 2—referred to as “Liberation Day.” These tariffs may target goods from nearly all countries, not just China, raising concerns of a global trade war that could hurt energy demand.
At the same time, oil prices remain supported by geopolitical tensions: Trump is threatening to increase sanctions on Russian oil and tighten restrictions on Iranian oil exports, preventing oil prices from falling too rapidly.
Supply – Demand & Crude Oil Inventories:
U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 6.037 million barrels in the week ending March 28, in contrast to a 4.6 million barrel draw the previous week. This marks the 5th increase in 8 weeks, suggesting supply is beginning to outpace demand in the short term—potentially leading to a temporary correction.
However, gasoline inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels, indicating domestic demand remains somewhat resilient.
Market Sentiment & Risk Assets:
Investor sentiment is highly cautious, evident in the sideways movement of Asian stock markets and a shift of capital into safe-haven assets like gold (near $3,150 highs) and bonds (10-year yields down to 4.133%).
Oil prices may become highly volatile after 20:00 GMT today once tariff details are released.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $73.11: Recent short-term high. A breakout could open the way toward $74+. ● $72.55: Mid-term technical resistance level.
Key Support Levels
● $70.45: Nearest support zone—price reaction here is crucial to maintaining the bullish structure.
● $68.65: Strong support, aligning with the EMA200.
● $67.25: Deeper support level in case of sharp declines.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 64.62, in the upper-neutral zone. It previously approached overbought levels, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, the market now appears to be “resting” or consolidating before confirming the next move.
Price Action: The price is consolidating around the $71 area.
● If the price rebounds from $70.45 with strong bullish candles, traders may consider buying with initial targets at $72.55 – $73.11.
● In a bearish scenario, if the price breaks below $70.45, profit-taking could pull prices down to test the EMA200 support around $68.65.
Disclaimer
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