Market Analysis

Bitcoin Bearish Trend Expected to Last 90 Days, Says Analyst, as Trade Tensions and Large Investors Drive Prices

Amos Simanungkalit · 24 Mar170.4K Views

Image Credit: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin has entered a bear market, with its price dropping over 20% from its all-time high. Analyst Timothy Peterson anticipates the downturn will last for about 90 days, noting that this decline is milder compared to past bear markets. Out of the last 10 downturns, only four—2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024—have lasted longer. Peterson doesn’t foresee Bitcoin dropping much below $50,000 but expects a potential slide in the next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally after April 15. This rebound could attract renewed buying interest and push Bitcoin’s price higher.

Investor sentiment has been affected by global trade tensions following tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump and retaliatory measures from various countries. This uncertainty has led to a decline in speculative investments. The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, which tracks Bitcoin held for a week or less, has dropped from 5.9% in November 2024 to 2.3% by March 20, signaling a reduction in short-term trading activity. A CryptoQuant report suggests that most retail investors are already in the market, countering expectations that new traders would push prices up.

Ether has also faced struggles, dropping more than 51% in the three months since peaking above $4,100 in December 2024. Analysts say ETH needs to reclaim the $2,200 level to regain upward momentum. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that if Ether can generate a strong reaction, it could reclaim the $2,196-$3,900 range. Despite positive regulatory moves, such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dropping its lawsuit against Ripple, ETH has yet to see substantial gains.

Open interest in Ether futures hit an all-time high on March 21, leading to speculation that large investors are preparing for a move above $2,400. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard pointed out that large ETH holders in the 10K-100K range have been increasing their positions while others have been selling. According to Glassnode data, the number of addresses holding at least $100,000 in ETH grew from 70,000 on March 10 to over 75,000 by March 22. However, this is still far below the 146,000 addresses seen in December when ETH was trading above $4,000.

Market uncertainty remains high, with some analysts expecting economic pressures to persist until at least April 2025. Despite the short-term volatility, long-term projections remain positive, with VanEck forecasting a $6,000 cycle top for ETH and a $180,000 peak for Bitcoin by 2025.