EUR/USD Analysis: Profit-Taking Pressure Emerges at Key Resistance

EUR/USD 
 
Prediction: Increase 

The EUR/USD pair remains in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. However, the price is currently facing strong resistance at 1.0930 and shows signs of a pullback. Profit-taking pressure emerged after the price hit this resistance level, but the overall trend remains intact. Investors should monitor key support levels to assess the potential for the uptrend to continue. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact 

The Fed maintained interest rates at the recent FOMC meeting but retained its forecast for two rate cuts (totaling 50 basis points) in 2025. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized there’s “no rush” to cut rates, creating a sense of caution in the market. 

U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly, weakening the USD and supporting the EUR/USD's upward momentum. 

The Trump administration's trade policies continue to create uncertainty with new import tariffs, raising concerns about inflation and slowing economic growth. 

Inflation and Market Drivers 

The Fed maintained its view that tariff-driven inflation could be temporary but raised its 2025 inflation forecast to 2.8%.

The weakening USD index helped EUR/USD hold above key support zones. 

Gold prices hit a record high of $3,055.96/oz, indicating strong safe-haven demand. 

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment 

U.S. equities rallied following the Fed meeting, while Chinese stock markets experienced sharp declines due to profit-taking from previous gains. 

The USD weakened, while EUR/USD held at its 5-month high of 1.0908. 

The Bank of England (BoE) is set to announce its interest rate decision, which may impact the British pound and indirectly affect EUR/USD.
 
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance Levels 

●    1.0930 – The strongest current resistance zone. Breaking above this level may push EUR/USD toward 1.1008. 

●    1.1008 – The next key resistance level; surpassing this would further solidify the uptrend. 

Key Support Levels 

●    1.0874 – A significant support zone aligning with the 34 EMA. 

●    1.0814 – A deeper support zone near the 89 EMA. 

●    1.0722 – A strong support area, marking previous lows. 

Technical Indicators: 

RSI: 52.74 – Currently in the neutral zone, showing no clear overbought or oversold signals. RSI previously reached a high and has since declined, indicating profit-taking pressure but no strong reversal signs. 

The uptrend remains dominant, but EUR/USD is showing signs of consolidation after hitting the 1.0930 resistance level. Investors should closely monitor support zones at 1.0874 – 1.0814 for optimal entry points. A breakout above 1.0930 could signal continued upward momentum toward 1.1008. The market will remain influenced by Fed policy, Chinese stock volatility, and upcoming economic data. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer

Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.

RISK WARNING IN TRADING

Transactions via margin involve products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.