BTCUSD Technical Outlook: Bearish Trend Intensifies as Support Levels Erode
Market Overview
China
The Chinese market saw a recovery in the yuan as the USD weakened due to concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession. Investors reduced their long USD positions, helping the yuan and other Asian currencies rebound. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the central parity rate at 7.1741 yuan/USD, its weakest in over a week but still stronger than Reuters' forecast. The yuan traded around
7.2450/USD, up 0.2%.
Amid concerns about escalating trade tensions and bleak economic data, Beijing is expected to increase fiscal stimulus with a target deficit of 4% of GDP and issue ¥1.3 trillion in long-term bonds in 2025. Investors are now closely watching policy decisions following the Two Sessions to assess the impact on the currency market.
Australia
The Australian market is facing mixed influences. Business conditions slightly improved in February, rising from +3 to +4 points, but business confidence remained negative. Meanwhile, consumer confidence hit its highest level in three years thanks to interest rate cuts and reduced living costs.
However, concerns over a potential U.S. recession and prolonged trade tensions stemming from President Trump's tariff policies have continued to weaken the AUD, which hovered around 0.627 USD.
Additionally, Cyclone Alfred has affected consumer sentiment in heavily impacted areas. Although the economic damage is expected to be temporary, some food prices may rise due to disruptions in agricultural supply. Investors are closely monitoring the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates further in May.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Bearish
Bitcoin is in a strong downtrend with lower highs and lower lows in recent times. The fact that BTC has slipped below the critical $80,000 support level and the 200-day moving average (MA 200) increases the risk of a deeper correction. Currently, the price is trading around $79,546 after a slight recovery from the $76,600 support zone.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Impact of Policies and Market News:
U.S. President Donald Trump has triggered investor concerns by mentioning the possibility of a recession amid uncertainties over tariffs and trade issues. The decision to double import tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, along with threats to impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, has further dampened market sentiment.
Additionally, concerns over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy continue to weigh heavily on the market. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its March 19 meeting, investors are anticipating a rate cut in either May or June.
Speculation that the Trump administration is intentionally pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates is also adding to financial market instability.
Furthermore, the cryptocurrency market is facing additional pressure from a sharp sell-off on Wall Street. The Dow Jones fell 2.08%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 4%, marking the worst trading day since September 2022.
Market Sentiment and Price Action:
The sharp decline in risk assets reflects investors' growing anxiety, reinforcing Bitcoin's short-term bearish trend.
According to Arthur Hayes (co-founder of BitMEX), BTC may find a bottom around $70,000. He advises investors to remain patient and wait for signs of Fed policy easing before increasing their buying positions.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $83,354: The nearest resistance level; a breakout above this may target the $88,756 region.
● $92,095: A strong resistance zone, aligning with the 200-day EMA, adding significant selling pressure.
● $97,766: A major resistance area; breaking above this could signal a stronger recovery.
Key Support Levels
● $76,619: A critical support zone where the price recently rebounded slightly. A breakdown below this could lead to a sharp decline toward deeper support zones.
● $73,864: The next major support level; breaking this could push BTC toward the $70,000 level, as predicted by Arthur Hayes.
Technical Indicators:
EMA: Both the EMA 34 and EMA 89 are sloping downward, indicating that the bearish trend remains dominant. The EMA 200 is currently above the price, confirming the medium-term downtrend.
RSI: The RSI is currently at 34.08, nearing the oversold zone (below 30). While this may trigger a short-term recovery, it’s not enough to confirm a strong reversal.
Bitcoin remains in a strong bearish trend, influenced by both macroeconomic concerns and technical indicators. The price breaking below $80,000 and trading beneath the EMA 200 increases the risk of further downward movement. Investors should be cautious with short-term buying positions and closely monitor upcoming Fed economic data next week to develop appropriate trading strategies.
XAUUSD
Prediction: Bearish
Gold is currently in a corrective downtrend after reaching its record high of $2,956.31 on February 24, 2025. Currently, the price is fluctuating around the $2,883 - $2,891 range as profit-taking pressure emerges following a strong rally. While the medium-term trend remains bullish, short-term pressure for a correction is evident.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:
Investors are awaiting the CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Thursday) data from the U.S. to assess the Fed's interest rate outlook. Higher-than-expected inflation data could prompt the Fed to maintain elevated interest rates for longer, putting downward pressure on gold.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points during the Asian session, following a 10 basis point drop the previous day — the largest decline in nearly a month. This has weakened the USD and provided short-term support for gold.
Currently, markets are expecting the Fed to cut rates by 88 basis points in 2025 (up from the previous forecast of 75 basis points), creating a more favorable environment for gold.
Inflation and Market Dynamics:
U.S. President Donald Trump continues to stir economic uncertainty with new tariff policies, raising concerns about inflation and recession. His reference to a "transition phase" without ruling out recession risks has further unsettled investors.
Global equities are experiencing a significant sell-off due to growth slowdown concerns. The S&P 500 dropped 2.7% — its sharpest decline in 2025 — while the Nasdaq fell 4%. This has driven demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Oil prices have fallen for two consecutive sessions amid concerns about weakening energy demand, adding further pressure on global economic growth.
Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment:
Trade tensions continue to escalate as Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. Although some items have been temporarily exempted, ongoing uncertainty is fueling investor concerns.
The Japanese yen and Swiss franc have strengthened significantly, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $2,906.715: The nearest resistance; breaking above this could trigger a recovery $2,929.
● $2,929.035: A strong resistance zone, aligning with previous highs.
● $2,956.505 - $2,960: The all-time high region; significant buying pressure would be required to break this level.
Key Support Levels
● $2,883.246: Immediate support zone where the price is currently consolidating.
● $2,858.874: A stronger support area, aligning with the 200-day EMA.
● $2,833.988: A crucial support zone; breaking below this may signal a deeper downtrend.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 49.02, indicating neutral momentum. Previously, RSI dropped from above 60 to below 50, suggesting selling pressure is building.
Volume: Trading volume is gradually decreasing, reflecting cautious market sentiment as investors await key economic data.
Prioritize short-term trades with entry points around key support/resistance zones. Closely monitor the CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Thursday) reports for clearer trend signals. Amid ongoing global uncertainty and Trump's unpredictable trade policies, gold is likely to retain its safe-haven appeal in the medium term.
S&P 500 (SPX)
Prediction: Decrease
The S&P 500 continues to decline sharply, falling 2.70% to close at 5,614.55, the lowest level since September 2024. The downtrend is evident, with lower highs and lower lows dominating the chart. Breaking below the 200-day EMA (at 5,710.12) is a negative signal, warning of a potential deeper correction phase.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:
The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.898% (-10.4 basis points), marking its steepest decline since September 2024. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.225% (-9.3 basis points).
This sharp decline in yields suggests investors are shifting funds from riskier assets (like stocks) to safer ones (like bonds), a classic sign of recession fears.
Although the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in 2025, rising inflation pressures may delay this decision. The deep drop in bond yields reflects growing expectations that the Fed may step in sooner if recession concerns intensify.
The upcoming CPI data (due Wednesday) will be a crucial factor shaping future monetary policy expectations.
Recession Fears and Market Sentiment:
Donald Trump's comments about a possible 2025 recession have heightened investor anxiety.
Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession from 15% to 20%.
HSBC downgraded U.S. stocks due to economic uncertainty stemming from Trump’s tariff policies.
The CBOE VIX Index, a key measure of market volatility, surged to its highest level since August 2024, reflecting increased fear and pessimism.
Sector Performance:
Tech stocks faced the heaviest losses:
● Tesla (-15.4%)
● Nvidia (-5.1%)
● Apple (-4.9%)
● Meta (-4.4%)
● Microsoft (-3.3%)
The technology and consumer discretionary sectors led the decline.
Only the energy and utilities sectors closed in positive territory.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● 5,622.44: A previous resistance zone from 2024.
● 5,710.01: The recently broken 200-day EMA, now acting as a key resistance. Failure to reclaim this level could lead to continued downside momentum.
● 5,866.43: A stronger resistance zone; regaining this level would signal a potential bullish reversal.
Key Support Levels
● 5,468.34: The next significant support level, which may slow the short-term decline.
● 5,330.16: A critical support zone in the event of a deeper correction.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 29.91, indicating oversold conditions. This suggests a potential short-term technical rebound; however, this is not yet a confirmed bullish reversal signal.
Monitor the upcoming U.S. CPI data closely, as it will significantly influence market sentiment and Fed policy expectations. In this volatile environment, risk management is key — setting appropriate stop-loss levels and avoiding oversized positions can help minimize potential losses. While a short-term technical bounce is possible due to oversold conditions, the broader bearish outlook remains dominant until key resistance levels are reclaimed.
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