XAU/USD Uptrend Continues as Gold Holds Above $2,900
Performance
Source: Dupoin, updated on 20/02/2025
Market Overview
United States
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, emphasizing the need for more evidence of declining inflation before considering rate cuts. The January meeting minutes highlighted concerns over the impact of new tax policies on prices.
Trump announced a 25% tariff on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, along with a 10% tariff on imports from China, raising fears of inflation and escalating trade tensions. Investors are closely watching U.S.-Russia peace negotiations, as Kyiv remains excluded from the discussions.
Japan
The Japanese yen surged, with USD/JPY dropping to a 10-week low at 150.91, marking a 2.91% decline over the past four weeks. Japanese investors were net buyers of ¥345.4 billion in equities and ¥241 billion in foreign bonds, though overall capital flows
remained low. Meanwhile, foreign investors bought ¥788.8 billion in JGBs but sold ¥352.8 billion in Japanese stocks.
Rising JGB yields have sparked speculation about a more hawkish stance from the BOJ, as Japan approaches the end of it fiscal year.
XAU/USD
Prediction: Increase
Gold prices continue their strong uptrend, hovering around $2,941 after reaching a record high of $2,947. Despite some profit-taking pressure in recent sessions, the bullish structure remains intact. Investors should monitor key resistance and support levels to assess the potential for further upside momentum.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy & Fed Impact
The Fed’s January meeting minutes indicate that policymakers require more evidence of sustained inflation decline before cutting interest rates.
The market currently expects only one rate cut in 2025, with a higher probability of a second cut if economic conditions deteriorate beyond expectations.
The U.S. dollar remains strong following the FOMC minutes, but this has not been enough to exert significant downward pressure on gold.
Inflation & Market Drivers
The Fed is concerned that new tax policies from the Trump administration could increase inflationary pressures.
Trump has announced plans for a 25% tariff on imported cars, as well as new taxes on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, raising fears of global trade tensions.
Gold remains supported by safe-haven demand amid increasing trade tensions and inflation risks.
Geopolitics & Market Sentiment
Peace talks between the U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war continue, but Kyiv’s absence raises concerns about potential delays or failure.
China has kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged, signaling caution in its monetary policy, which could further boost gold reserve demand from the People’s Bank of China.
Saxo Bank notes that despite the strong USD, safe-haven demand continues to support gold prices due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $2,947.080 – The most recent high; a breakout above this level could push prices towards $2,960 - $2,980.
● $2,960 – A crucial psychological resistance; surpassing this level may trigger a stronger bullish rally.
Key Support Levels
● $2,908.251 – The nearest support; a price correction may test this zone.
● $2,881.958 – A stronger support area that could act as a potential bounce level if prices decline further.
● $2,850.545 – A critical support zone; breaking below this could challenge the ongoing bullish trend.
EMA 34, 89, 200: Prices remain above these key exponential moving averages, confirming the dominance of the uptrend.
RSI: 61.21 - The Relative Strength Index remains neutral but is trending upwards, with no overbought signals yet.
Trading Volume: Still at high levels, indicating strong investor interest in gold.
Gold’s bullish trend remains intact, with geopolitical tensions and inflation risks providing fundamental support. However, key resistance levels must be breached for the uptrend to
extend further. Traders should watch economic and geopolitical developments closely.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Sideways
Bitcoin remains in a downtrend on the 4H timeframe but has shown signs of recovery from the $95,000 support zone. The price has broken above a short-term descending trendline and is currently trading around $97,000, with potential to test $98,000 if bullish momentum continues.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy & Fed Impact
On February 19, the Federal Reserve (Fed) released its latest meeting minutes, showing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures.
The Fed remains cautious and has not provided a clear timeline for rate cuts, which creates short-term pressure on BTC, as a high-interest-rate environment reduces the appeal of risk assets like crypto.
However, market expectations still price in a 45 basis points rate cut in 2025, suggesting that long-term sentiment remains bullish. If the Fed pivots to a more dovish stance, BTC could benefit significantly in the medium to long term.
Market Sentiment & On-Chain Data
Taker Buy/Sell Ratio = 0.96 → Indicates lack of strong momentum, suggesting a potential short-term correction before a continued uptrend.
MVRV Ratio = 2.21 → Still far from the "market top" zone (3.5-4.0), meaning BTC is not overvalued and has room for further growth.
Bitfinex Long Positions = $5.1B → Leverage long positions on Bitfinex have hit a 3-month high, indicating that capital is betting on a strong BTC rally. However, BTC price has not reacted strongly yet, suggesting that many of these positions might be hedging rather than pure speculation.
Bitcoin Policy in the U.S.
Montana has passed a bill allowing Bitcoin to be included in state reserve assets, alongside gold and stablecoins. If fully approved, Montana could allocate up to $50 million into BTC
and other digital assets.
Other states like Utah, Arizona, and Oklahoma are making similar progress toward recognizing Bitcoin as a legitimate reserve asset.
While this is a positive step for Bitcoin adoption, its immediate impact on BTC price remains uncertain, as it does not directly influence short-term supply and demand dynamics.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $97,766 → Immediate resistance; a breakout could push BTC toward $99,198.
● $99,198 → Near EMA 200; breaking above this could trigger a move toward $102,216.
● $102,216 - $106,807 → Strong resistance zone; a crucial test if BTC regains bullish momentum.
Key Support Levels
● $95,000 → Major support; BTC recently bounced from this level.
● $92,095 → A critical support zone, tested multiple times since November 2024.
RSI (58.86) → Recovering from oversold levels, showing bullish momentum but still below overbought territory. Further confirmation needed for a sustained uptrend.
Trading Volume → No significant spike yet; price reaction at the $97,000 - $98,000 resistance zone should be closely monitored.
BTC/USD is showing short-term recovery signs, but key resistance at $97,766 - $98,000 needs to be cleared for further upside. Macro factors like Fed policy and on-chain data suggest long-term bullish potential, but short-term uncertainties remain. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and price action around key resistance levels before committing to a directional move.
EURUSD
Prediction: Decrease
EUR/USD remains in a downward correction, with three consecutive bearish sessions.
Currently, the pair is fluctuating around the key support zone at 1.0429 - 1.0430, which coincides with the 34 EMA on the H4 chart. If this level holds, a short-term rebound may occur. However, the strengthening USD and macroeconomic risks could push EUR/USD to lower support levels.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy & Fed Impact
The USD continues to strengthen as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty. U.S. Treasury yields remain stable, but the 2-year vs. 10-year yield spread has increased slightly (+2bps), indicating that markets still expect the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.
Impact of Trump's Tariff Policies
Former President Donald Trump has announced plans for a 25% tariff on the auto, pharmaceutical, and semiconductor industries, triggering market concerns.
Rising trade tensions are weighing on market risk sentiment, further strengthening the USD while pressuring the EUR.
European Bond Yields & Stimulus Measures
Eurozone bond yields have risen due to expectations of increased defense spending and a potential German stimulus package following last weekend’s elections.
However, these factors have not been sufficient to offset selling pressure on EUR/USD, as the USD continues to benefit from safe-haven demand.
Geopolitics & Market Sentiment
Tensions between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy are escalating, creating uncertainty over U.S.-Ukraine relations, which supports safe-haven assets like USD and gold.
The European stock index (STOXX 600) recorded its biggest decline of the year, reflecting worsening risk sentiment.
Oil and natural gas prices have surged, reinforcing safe-haven flows into USD-denominated assets.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● 1.0470 – Immediate resistance; if broken, EUR/USD could attempt a short-term recovery.
● 1.0507 – A more significant resistance; a breakout above this level could shift momentum back to a bullish trend.
Key Support Levels
● 1.0374 – The next support level if EUR/USD breaks below the current support zone.
● 1.0339 – A stronger support area that could trigger a potential rebound if the decline continues.
EMA 34 & EMA 89: The 34 EMA is converging towards the 89 EMA, indicating weakening bullish momentum. If the 34 EMA crosses below the 89 EMA, a clearer bearish signal will
emerge.
RSI (47.61): The Relative Strength Index is below 50, suggesting that bearish momentum is still in play. If RSI drops below 40, selling pressure could intensify.
EUR/USD remains under pressure as macroeconomic risks and a strong USD drive the pair lower. A potential short-term rebound is possible near 1.0429 - 1.0430, but unless key resistance levels are breached, the downtrend is likely to continue.
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