Trump's Market-Impacting Social Media Posts Decline Post-Re-election, Study Shows

Image Credit: Reuters

A study by JPMorgan has found that since his re-election, Donald Trump has made fewer market-impacting social media posts compared to his first term. Of the 126 posts he made on sensitive issues like trade tariffs, foreign relations, and economics, only 10% triggered notable currency market movements.

However, the frequency of his posts is increasing, with over 20 posts last week related to these issues—double the average from January. Despite this rise, it remains far below the 60 posts per week he made during the 2018-2019 trade disputes.

JPMorgan noted that posts related to tariffs had the most significant impact, with about one-third of them causing market shifts. The most notable effect occurred in early February, when Trump's posts about using emergency powers to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada led to a 2% drop in Mexico's peso and a 1% drop in Canada's dollar—though the tariffs were later postponed.

Trump’s posts on China caused mixed reactions, with the yuan falling after he threatened tariffs over fentanyl, but rising in mid-January after he described a positive phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

JPMorgan’s analysis also showed that trading based on Trump's social media posts would not have been highly profitable. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, buying the dollar against a basket of high beta currencies would have resulted in no more than a 4% gain. Despite fewer impactful social media messages, Trump has increased direct communication through nearly daily press briefings from the Oval Office.

Paraphrasing text from "Reuters" all rights reserved by the original author