EUR/USD Declines as Fed Policy Strengthens USD, Euro Struggles
XAU/USD
Prediction: Increase (with potential for short-term correction)
Gold prices continue to maintain a strong upward trend, approaching record highs and heading for their sixth consecutive weekly gain. However, with the RSI indicator approaching overbought territory, a short-term correction is possible before the uptrend resumes.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Influence
Interest rates: The Fed may continue to cut interest rates this year, supporting gold. However, the Chicago Fed President warned about the pace of cuts due to concerns about the impact of US tariff policies.
Key economic data: The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will be released at 13:30 GMT. If the data is good, the USD could strengthen, putting pressure on gold. Conversely, if the data is weak, gold could rally.
Inflation and Market Dynamics
Inflation & trade policy: US-China trade tensions are increasing safe-haven demand for gold. Goldman Sachs estimates the trade conflict has pushed gold prices up by around 7%. Demand from central banks: The Bank of England reported a 2% drop in gold reserves, due to strong demand from international investors.
Geopolitics and Market Sentiment
Global economic uncertainty: Trade tensions continue to support gold prices. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for gold to reach $3,000/oz by Q2 2026. US-China trade policy: If the US reduces tariffs, there could be short-term profit-taking pressure on gold.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $2,882 USD/oz: Recent high, a break above could open the way for a rally to $2,900 USD/oz.
● $2,900 USD/oz: Strong psychological resistance, could trigger selling pressure.
Key Support Levels
● $2,844 USD/oz: Nearest support, if the price corrects, this could be a bounce point.
● $2,827 USD/oz: Next support, if broken could drag the price towards the $2,793 USD/oz area.
● $2,793 USD/oz: Nearest hard support, if the price falls deeply, this will be a strong buying zone.
RSI: 65.98 on the H4 timeframe, not yet in overbought territory but approaching the 70 threshold, a slight correction may occur.
EMA level: Price remains above the EMA 34, EMA 89 and EMA 200, indicating that the uptrend is still dominant.
Price Action:
● If the price breaks above $2,882 USD/oz with strong buying force, the uptrend could continue with a target of $2,900 USD/oz.
● If it corrects, the $2,844 - $2,827 USD/oz zone will be key support to look for buying opportunities.
Trading Volume: Demand for physical gold from the US and ETF funds continues to increase strongly, supporting the upward momentum of gold prices.
Gold maintains its upward trend but may experience a short-term correction due to the RSI approaching overbought territory and encountering strong resistance at $2,882 - $2,900 USD/oz. Investors should wait for confirmation from price action and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data before entering new positions.
EUR/USD
Prediction: Decrease
The EUR/USD is under downward pressure amid a strong USD, while the Euro struggles with the prospect of a slowing Eurozone economy. Currently, the exchange rate is fluctuating around 1.0382, slightly down from the previous session.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Influence
Fed interest rate policy: Fed officials continue to maintain the view of keeping interest rates high for an extended period, with the possibility of a 25 basis point cut in July. This still supports the USD at high levels.
US jobs report (NFP): Expected to be released today with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1% and job growth increasing by 170,000. If these figures are better than expected, the USD could continue to strengthen and put pressure on the EUR/USD.
Impact of tariff policies: The Trump administration postponed tariffs with Mexico & Canada but imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, focusing the market on the strength of the USD.
Eurozone Situation and ECB
ECB shows no signs of raising interest rates: Unlike the Fed, the ECB remains cautious and has no clear signal of policy tightening, causing the Euro to continue to weaken.
Weak economic data: The Eurozone is facing slowing growth, and if subsequent economic reports are not favorable, the EUR/USD could continue to decline.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● 1.0420: Nearest resistance area, a break above could open the way for a rally to 1.0465.
● 1.0465: More important resistance level, but with the current context, the possibility of a strong breakout is not high.
Key Support Levels
● 1.0360: Nearest support level, if broken could push the EUR/USD lower.
● 1.0325: Important support, if this level is lost, the downtrend could accelerate towards 1.0280.
● 1.0280: Strong support, the possibility of strong buying force appears here.
RSI: 52.35 on the H4 frame, showing the potential for accumulation before a clear trend.
EMA Trends: Price is below the important EMAs, indicating that the downtrend is still dominant.
Price Action: If the price breaks 1.0360 with a strong candlestick, the downtrend could continue with a target of 1.0325.
The EUR/USD is under downward pressure due to the strength of the USD and the weak economic outlook from the Eurozone. If today's US jobs report is better than forecast, the USD could continue to maintain its strength, pushing the EUR/USD to lower support areas. Investors should monitor price action at 1.0360 and important economic data before making a trading decision.
BTC/USD
Prediction: Decrease
Bitcoin remains in a downtrend after failing to sustain above $100,000. Currently, the price is trading below key moving averages, indicating that selling pressure is still dominant. The RSI is at 46.14 on the 4-hour timeframe, not yet in the oversold zone, which could allow for a deeper decline if key support levels are broken.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact
Interest rate policy: President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has raised concerns about inflation, which could prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates for an extended period. A 25 basis point cut is expected in July. This exerts downward pressure on Bitcoin, a non-yielding asset.
Key economic data: The upcoming U.S. jobs report—if unemployment rises or job numbers fall short of expectations—could push the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy sooner, supporting the crypto market.
Market Sentiment and Capital Flows
Selling pressure from Strategy: The company reported a $670 million loss in Q4 but continues its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. However, concerns remain about the sustainability of this approach if prices keep declining.
Franklin Templeton proposes a Crypto Index ETF: If approved, this could facilitate institutional inflows into Bitcoin.
Regulations and policies: A new crypto law in the Czech Republic allows crypto businesses to open bank accounts, which could contribute to market stability.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $99,198: The first resistance level; a break above could lead to $102,216.
● $102,216: A key Bear Order Block; failure to break above this level may intensify selling pressure.
● $106,807 - $108,364: A strong resistance zone that will require significant bullish momentum to break.
Key Support Levels
● $96,014: The nearest support; a break below could send the price down to $90,437.
● $90,437: A major support level; losing this level could lead to $89,164.
● $89,164: A crucial support level; if breached, the downtrend could accelerate further.
EMA: Price is below the 200 EMA, 34 EMA, and 89 EMA, confirming the bearish trend.
RSI: At 46.14 on the H4 timeframe, indicating strong selling pressure but not yet oversold.
Trading Volume: Currently low, suggesting the market lacks strong bullish momentum.
BTC/USD remains in a downtrend, and price action at key support levels should be closely monitored to identify trading opportunities. Investors should wait for confirmation from price action and economic news before entering new positions.
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