Bitcoin Price Forecast: Strong Support at $89,857, Eyes $100,000 Resistance

XAUUSD

Prediction: Decline

Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices retreated from their daily peak as sellers gained dominance, increasing the likelihood of further declines. The primary driver behind this drop is the rise in U.S. personal incomes. Data released on Wednesday showed that personal income in October rose by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing the forecasted 0.3%. Higher incomes suggest consumers may better withstand inflation, reducing the Federal Reserve's urgency to implement aggressive interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the revised U.S. GDP growth for Q3 remained steady at 2.8%, a slight slowdown from Q2's 3%. Despite this, the economy continues to demonstrate resilience, with GDP growth exceeding 2% in eight of the last nine quarters. Early Thursday in Asian trading, spot gold plummeted sharply from its high of $2,638.50/oz to a low of $2,621.08/oz.

Technical Analysis:
Gold’s technical outlook has shifted to neutral-to-bearish after falling below $2,700/oz. The metal is forming a bearish trend with lower highs and lower lows. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest selling momentum is dominating. If prices fall below $2,600/oz, gold could decline further, testing the 100-day moving average at $2,568/oz, followed by the November 14 low of $2,536/oz. Conversely, if buyers regain control and push prices above the 50-day moving average at $2,667/oz, gold may retest $2,700/oz. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a climb to $2,750/oz and the all-time high of $2,790/oz.

USDJPY

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending and increased exports, according to the Commerce Department. This figure aligns with earlier estimates and underscores the economy's resilience. However, the U.S. dollar weakened in light trading ahead of Thanksgiving as investors weighed the potential risks of tariff actions under former President Trump. The Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.74% to 106.06, its lowest level since November 13. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen gained momentum, bolstered by speculation about a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December and market positioning. Additionally, Japan's low exposure to tariff risks provided further confidence to investors.

Technical Analysis:
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY slipping below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicates the possibility of further downward movement. Initial support lies in the 153.30–153.25 range, with the 153.00 level acting as a critical threshold. A decisive break below 153.00 could intensify selling pressure, driving the pair toward the mid-152.00s and potentially testing the 200-day SMA near 152.00. On the upside, resistance is seen at 154.00, followed by 154.40. Sustained buying could push the pair toward 155.00, with further gains targeting the 155.40–155.50 range. A stronger bullish move might lead to a break above 156.00, aiming for the multi-month high of 156.75 recorded on November 15.

EURUSD

Prediction: Likely to Rise

Fundamental Analysis:
EUR/USD extended its upward momentum on Wednesday, approaching the 1.0600 mark after consolidating modest gains from Tuesday. The pair strengthened as the US Dollar saw a sharp decline, driven by comments from President-elect Donald Trump about potential new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, Canada, and the EU. Additionally, end-of-month portfolio adjustments contributed to the movement. On November 7, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00% as part of its efforts to bring inflation back to the 2% target. However, early signs of labor market stress are emerging despite persistently low unemployment rates.

Technical Analysis:
Should EUR/USD continue its downward trajectory, it may revisit its 2024 low of 1.0331 (November 22), with further potential targets at 1.0290 (November 30, 2022) and 1.0222 (November 21, 2022). On the upside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0857 serves as the first resistance level, followed by the 55-day SMA at 1.0860 and the November high of 1.0936 (November 6). The short-term outlook remains bearish while the pair trades below the 200-day SMA. However, the 4-hour chart suggests a moderate recovery is possible, with immediate resistance at 1.0584, followed by 1.0609 and 1.0653. Downside targets remain at 1.0331 and 1.0290. The RSI has risen to 62, signaling improving momentum.

BTCUSD

Prediction: Potential Upside Movement

Fundamental Analysis:
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has unveiled plans to establish a pro-cryptocurrency administration, highlighting Bitcoin as a key element of a proposed national strategic reserve. Following this announcement, Canada has expressed similar interest, with Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim advocating for Bitcoin's inclusion as a strategic reserve asset. Mayor Sim outlined Vancouver’s intention to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet as part of efforts to diversify investments and position the city as a Bitcoin-friendly hub. Additionally, Trump has appointed notable figures such as Elon Musk to head the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services, and Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary. The President-elect also reassured the crypto community that the upcoming SEC chair would actively support digital assets.

Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin recently slipped below its upward trendline but found strong support near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $89,857. On Wednesday, buyers drove the price back above the trendline, signaling robust demand at lower levels. If the price maintains its position above the trendline, Bitcoin may climb to the psychological resistance level of $100,000. This level could face strong selling pressure, but a breakout might propel the price toward $113,331 and eventually $125,000. Conversely, a decisive drop below the 20-day EMA could invalidate this bullish scenario, potentially dragging Bitcoin down to $85,000, where renewed buying interest is anticipated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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