Trump's China policy may extend beyond tariffs, as indicated by Rubio's selection

By nominating China hawk Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has signaled that his policy towards Beijing may extend beyond tariffs and trade disputes, potentially adopting a more confrontational stance against China's status as a strategic rival.

Rubio’s nomination, announced on Wednesday, was accompanied by other cabinet selections that are likely to irk China, including Representative Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser and John Ratcliffe as the new head of the CIA. Together, these appointments hint at Trump's desire to abandon the Biden administration's strategy of "managing competition" with Beijing, covering areas such as Taiwan support and China's connection to the U.S. fentanyl crisis.

Republicans have often criticized Biden's approach as overly conciliatory. Rubio, a staunch critic of China, views the country as a direct threat to the U.S., according to former U.S. diplomat David Firestein. Firestein notes that Rubio’s perception of China as an existential competitor is likely to intensify tensions between the two nations.

While Rubio would execute, rather than set, Trump's foreign policy agenda as Secretary of State, his extensive foreign policy experience and strong anti-China stance would make him a significant influence within Trump’s cabinet. Trump has vowed to revoke China’s most-favored-nation trade status and impose tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese imports, surpassing the levels set during his previous term.

Rubio is anticipated to be confirmed easily by the Senate, where he holds senior positions on both the Foreign Relations and Intelligence Committees. The Cuban-American senator, known for his staunch anti-communism, faced Chinese sanctions in 2020 due to his support for pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong. If confirmed, this would mark the first instance where a U.S. Secretary of State would face travel restrictions imposed by China, posing an immediate challenge to U.S.-China engagement under the new Trump administration.

Rubio has consistently advocated for visa sanctions on Chinese officials and urged the State Department to block Hong Kong’s chief executive, John Lee, from attending the 2023 APEC summit in San Francisco. While China’s embassy in Washington declined to comment on Rubio's nomination, spokesperson Liu Pengyu expressed hopes for improved ties with the incoming administration.

Rubio's record on human rights issues in China, a long-standing point of contention, has been a focal area. He co-sponsored the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, a tool for blocking Chinese imports tied to human rights abuses against Muslim minorities. Hong Kong democracy activists view Rubio as a key supporter, citing his sponsorship of the 2019 Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.

Frances Hui of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation expressed enthusiasm about working with Rubio, who has pushed for revoking certification of Hong Kong's trade offices in the U.S., arguing that Beijing’s erosion of Hong Kong's autonomy justifies such measures. However, it remains uncertain how far Trump would allow his top diplomat to go in imposing restrictions that could conflict with broader administrative goals.

According to Daniel Russel of the Asia Society Policy Institute, while Trump's foreign policy team appears hawkish towards China, they could pivot if Trump’s strategy shifts towards negotiation.

During Trump’s first term, a trade agreement was reached with China after a series of reciprocal tariffs. However, many experts argue that Beijing has not fully met its commitments.

Rubio has also highlighted national security risks posed by China, advocating for measures such as blacklisting Chinese industrial battery company CATL, ending preferential capital gains tax rates for U.S. firms investing in China, tightening U.S. technology export restrictions, and closing tariff loopholes on small-package shipments from China, which are often linked to fentanyl precursor chemicals.

His vocal support for Taiwan—viewed by China as a breakaway province—has been a sore point for Beijing. Rubio has called for a U.S.-Taiwan free trade deal and stronger ties between officials from both sides. Analysts predict that Taiwan may pursue significant arms purchases early in Trump’s term, an area that would likely be prioritized under Rubio's tenure at the State Department. Trump's first term saw over $18 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, far outpacing the $7.7 billion approved by the Biden administration.

Some observers speculate that Beijing may attempt to circumvent Rubio by engaging directly with Trump or senior administration figures. If that fails, analysts like Steve Tsang from the China Institute at SOAS warn that a period of worsening U.S.-China relations could ensue.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Paraphrasing text from "Reuters" all rights reserved by the original author.