Trump’s Re-election and Tariff Worries Weigh on the Euro
XAU/USD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
On November 11, gold prices fell by over 2%, largely driven by a stronger US dollar and expectations of fiscal policy changes following Donald Trump’s re-election. Spot gold closed down $64.75, or 2.41%, at $2,619.23 per ounce, reaching a low of $2,610.61. The decline was fueled by a stronger dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and a heightened risk appetite in the markets. Gold’s drop coincided with Trump’s victory, which led to market concerns. Additionally, rumors about Robert Lighthizer, a supporter of tariffs, potentially heading the U.S. Trade Office added further uncertainty. Markets also expect Federal Reserve Chair Powell to adopt a cautious stance next year, boosting the dollar and pressuring gold.
Technical Analysis:
Gold briefly dropped to around $2,610 per ounce, nearing a key support level of $2,603 from October 10. A drop below this support could lead to further declines, with the next key support at $2,600 per ounce, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,534. If gold surpasses $2,700, buyers may focus on the 20-day moving average at $2,718, with potential targets of $2,750 and $2,758. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests bearish momentum, signaling that gold may continue its downward trend.
USD/JPY
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
The Bank of Japan’s recent meeting showed mixed opinions on further tightening policies. Analysts believe political uncertainty, particularly following Trump’s re-election, could hinder the BoJ’s ability to raise rates. Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba leads a minority government after losing the majority in the lower house, making it harder to pass policies. Trump’s planned 10% tariff increase on imports could negatively impact Japan’s export sector, a key part of its economy.
Technical Analysis:
USD/JPY has pulled back sharply but is expected to remain within a range of $152.50 to $153.85. A break below $152.50 could signal sideways movement, while the longer-term upward momentum appears to have slowed. Despite the recent pullback, the US dollar is unlikely to weaken further in the short term.
EUR/USD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
EUR/USD fell by 0.59% on November 11, reaching its lowest point since April 2024 at $1.0655. The euro has weakened since Trump’s re-election, with concerns over potential new tariffs under his administration. Reports suggest that Trump may bring back Robert Lighthizer, known for his tough trade policies, adding further pressure on the euro.
Technical Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend, having broken below the 200-day EMA at $1.0895. The price is also below the 50-day EMA, indicating a bearish trend. The next key support level is near $1.0650, with further declines possible towards $1.0600. If the market sees buying activity around current levels, EUR/USD could attempt a rebound to $1.0750-$1.0800.
BTC/USD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin surged to $88,887 after Trump’s election win, fueled by optimism surrounding potential changes in US policy. A Bitcoin advisor within Trump’s team suggested that a nation is actively buying Bitcoin, hinting at significant developments. Trump has pledged to create a national Bitcoin reserve, and Bitcoin could become a strategic reserve asset. This follows a broader trend of countries showing increasing interest in Bitcoin, such as El Salvador and Bhutan.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin has experienced a strong upward trend, with the latest rally pushing prices above $88,000 and increasing its market capitalization to over $1.67 trillion. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a slight pullback may occur, Bitcoin is expected to maintain an optimistic outlook. Support levels are at $80,000 and $77,000, with the next potential target at $93,554.
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