Conflicting Data Clouds the Oil Market

Conflicting estimates of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are making it increasingly difficult for traders to determine how much Middle Eastern crude is reaching the global market.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said nearly 9 million barrels per day were leaving the Gulf through the waterway.

He estimated total regional oil flows at approximately 15 million barrels per day after including exports through alternative pipelines and facilities.

If accurate, those figures would indicate that regional flows had recovered to around 75% of their pre-war level.

However, estimates from vessel-tracking and oil-research companies were substantially lower.

Available estimates placed shipments through Hormuz between approximately 1.74 million and 6.98 million barrels per day. Total regional exports were estimated between 9.33 million and 12.26 million barrels per day.

Before the conflict, regional oil flows were approximately 18.7 million barrels per day.

The unusually wide difference between government and commercial estimates means traders cannot confidently determine whether Gulf supply is recovering or whether the physical market remains substantially tighter than reported.

Why the Data Gap Matters

Oil prices depend not only on expected production but also on the volume of crude that can physically reach refiners.

An oilfield may continue operating while exports remain constrained by:

• Shipping restrictions.
• Tanker shortages.
• Maritime attacks.
• Insurance limitations.
• Port congestion.
• Pipeline capacity.
• Storage availability.
• Naval blockades.

If exports are closer to the US estimate, the market may have more available supply than vessel-tracking services indicate.

If commercial estimates are more accurate, the global market may be receiving several million fewer barrels per day than suggested by US officials.

A difference of this size could materially affect:

• Brent and WTI prices.
• Refinery purchasing decisions.
• Strategic-reserve policies.
• Inflation forecasts.
• Tanker rates.
• Regional crude premiums.
• Central-bank expectations.

The uncertainty may also increase price volatility because new shipping data could force traders to revise their supply assumptions rapidly.

US Officials Report a Stronger Recovery

The US estimate suggests that exporters have increased their ability to move oil despite continuing disruption.

Possible alternative export channels include:

• Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.
• UAE pipelines bypassing Hormuz.
• Red Sea export terminals.
• Overland transport.
• Temporary offshore transfers.
• Expanded use of storage facilities.
• Tanker movements under naval protection.

Infrastructure outside Hormuz can reduce the dependence of Gulf producers on the waterway.

However, alternative routes cannot fully replace the strait’s pre-war capacity. Pipeline limitations, refinery connections and destination requirements restrict the amount of crude that can be redirected.

The US estimate may include flows that are difficult for conventional commercial services to observe, but detailed vessel-level information has not been publicly released.

Without supporting data, market participants may remain cautious about treating the higher estimate as confirmed.

Vessel-Tracking Services Show Lower Exports

Kpler and LSEG Oil Research produced lower estimates of oil flows through the region.

Commercial tracking services generally rely on:

• Automatic Identification System signals.
• Satellite imagery.
• Port-loading information.
• Vessel dimensions and cargo capacity.
• Draft changes.
• Shipping schedules.
• Customs and trade data.
• Historical tanker patterns.

These systems provide valuable information but may become less reliable during conflict.

Some tankers may disable or manipulate their tracking signals. Others may conceal destinations or conduct transfers that make cargoes more difficult to follow.

Tracking services may therefore fail to capture all regional shipments.

Nevertheless, the wide range among estimates cannot be explained automatically by imperfect tracking. It indicates that the physical market has become unusually opaque.

Dark Shipping May Conceal Some Cargoes

One possible explanation for the data gap is an increase in untracked or clandestine shipments.

Tankers may attempt to conceal their activity by:

• Disabling transponders.
• Broadcasting false positions.
• Changing vessel names or flags.
• Conducting ship-to-ship transfers.
• Using complex ownership structures.
• Altering declared destinations.
• Sailing through poorly monitored routes.

These practices have previously been associated with efforts to avoid sanctions or shipping restrictions.

Dark shipping could mean commercial services are underestimating the amount of oil leaving the Gulf.

However, it introduces additional risks:

• Maritime collisions.
• Environmental accidents.
• Invalid insurance coverage.
• Sanctions enforcement.
• Cargo seizure.
• Uncertain delivery schedules.
• Reduced market transparency.

Refiners may also be unwilling or legally unable to purchase cargoes whose origin, ownership or shipping history cannot be verified.

Ship-to-Ship Transfers May Create Measurement Errors

Oil can be transferred from one vessel to another before reaching its final destination.

Ship-to-ship transfers are legitimate operational tools, but they can complicate supply estimates.

A cargo may be counted more than once if analysts record both the original vessel movement and the receiving vessel’s departure as separate exports.

Conversely, a cargo may be missed if the first vessel turns off its tracking signal before completing the transfer.

The US figure may therefore differ because it uses another monitoring method, potentially including military or intelligence information.

Analysts have also raised the possibility that movements are being double-counted.

Without detailed vessel and cargo records, it is difficult to determine whether the difference reflects hidden shipments or measurement errors.

Political Incentives Add Another Layer of Uncertainty

Energy-flow estimates can influence public confidence, diplomatic negotiations and inflation expectations.

A higher export estimate may support the argument that:

• The regional energy system is stabilising.
• US measures are improving shipping security.
• The global economy faces less supply risk.
• Emergency interventions are unnecessary.
• Inflation pressure may moderate.

A lower estimate may suggest:

• Shipping disruption remains severe.
• Iran retains substantial influence over Hormuz.
• Energy security remains vulnerable.
• Strategic reserves may be required.
• Oil prices could rise again.

Because the figures carry political and economic implications, traders may require independent confirmation before adjusting their market assumptions.

The eventual arrival of cargoes at Asian ports could provide clearer evidence. Import data typically appears with a delay, meaning the true export volume may not become apparent for several weeks.

Asian Import Data Could Provide Confirmation

A large proportion of Gulf oil normally travels to Asian refiners.

China, India, Japan and South Korea are among the most important buyers of Middle Eastern crude.

Future import data may help answer several questions:

• How many Gulf cargoes completed delivery?
• Which producers maintained exports?
• How much oil travelled through Hormuz?
• How much was redirected through pipelines?
• Did refiners draw down inventories?
• Were cargoes delayed rather than cancelled?
• Did buyers replace Gulf oil with other grades?

If Asian imports remain substantially below normal, it would support the lower commercial estimates.

If imports recover more strongly, it may indicate that dark shipping and alternative routes concealed more exports than vessel-tracking services detected.

The delay between departure and arrival means the market may remain uncertain in the near term.

Oil Prices Reflect Competing Signals

Oil prices recently fell below $88 per barrel despite continuing geopolitical tension.

WTI traded around $81, while Brent remained below the psychologically important $90 level.

The decline reflected several bearish factors:

• Lower global oil-demand forecasts.
• A large increase in US crude inventories.
• Signs that some Gulf exports may be recovering.
• Concern that high prices are reducing consumption.
• Profit-taking after the recent rally.

At the same time, supply risks remain substantial:

• Shipping through Hormuz remains disrupted.
• Attacks on commercial and energy-linked vessels continue.
• US-Iran negotiations remain unresolved.
• Regional production has been curtailed.
• Maritime insurance and freight costs remain elevated.
• Export estimates remain unreliable.

These opposing forces may keep oil within a wide and volatile range.

Vessel Attacks Maintain the Risk Premium

The UAE accused Iran of attacking two vessels owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company while they were passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

No injuries were reported, and ADNOC said the situation had been brought under control.

The incident was reportedly the second attack on ADNOC-linked vessels within less than a week.

Iran had not responded to the latest allegations at the time of reporting.

Attacks on commercial vessels can affect oil prices even when cargoes are not lost because they increase:

• Insurance premiums.
• Security expenses.
• Crew risk.
• Tanker availability.
• Charter rates.
• Delivery times.
• The likelihood of route avoidance.

Repeated attacks could discourage vessel operators from entering the Gulf, limiting export capacity regardless of how much oil producers have available.

Demand Concerns Limit the Upside

OPEC and the International Energy Agency recently reduced their oil-demand forecasts.

OPEC lowered its forecast for 2026 global oil-demand growth to approximately 580,000 barrels per day.

The IEA presented a more bearish assessment, forecasting a decline in global consumption as high prices and fuel shortages affect economic activity.

US commercial crude inventories also increased sharply, providing evidence that supply conditions may be more comfortable in some markets.

These developments limit the effect of geopolitical risk on oil prices.

Even a severe supply disruption may not produce a sustained rally if:

• Global growth slows.
• Consumers reduce fuel use.
• Industrial activity weakens.
• Refiners cut processing rates.
• Strategic reserves are released.
• Alternative producers increase exports.

The market must therefore evaluate both the number of missing barrels and the amount of demand destruction caused by elevated prices.

Inflation Outlook Depends on the True Supply Level

The difference between the export estimates has implications beyond oil markets.

If Gulf flows have recovered toward 15 million barrels per day, energy prices may continue stabilising and reduce future inflation pressure.

If exports remain closer to 9 million barrels per day, physical shortages could eventually push crude and refined-product prices higher.

Higher oil prices can affect:

• Petrol and diesel.
• Airline fares.
• Shipping expenses.
• Manufacturing costs.
• Food production.
• Household utilities.
• Corporate margins.
• Consumer inflation expectations.

Central banks may respond differently depending on whether energy pressure appears temporary or persistent.

The Federal Reserve currently faces less immediate pressure to increase rates after moderate CPI and PPI reports. Another sustained oil rally could complicate that outlook.

Implications for Related Markets

USDCAD

Canada is a major oil exporter, so stronger crude prices can sometimes support the Canadian dollar.

However, US interest-rate expectations, Canadian economic data and general risk sentiment may outweigh the oil relationship.

Gold

Gold may benefit from geopolitical uncertainty and concern about energy-driven inflation.

Higher oil prices can also lift Treasury yields and the US dollar, creating competing pressure on the non-yielding metal.

Asian currencies

Currencies of major oil-importing countries may face pressure if energy costs increase and trade balances weaken.

Equity markets

Energy producers may benefit from higher realised prices, while airlines, transportation businesses and manufacturers may face margin pressure.

Market Outlook

The wide gap between estimates of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz prevents the market from forming a reliable view of Middle Eastern supply.

If the US estimate is accurate, regional exports have recovered more strongly than commercial tracking indicates, potentially limiting further oil-price gains.

If the lower estimates are correct, the physical market remains substantially undersupplied and vulnerable to renewed price increases.

Weak demand forecasts and rising US inventories currently place downward pressure on Brent and WTI. Continuing vessel attacks and unreliable export data prevent the geopolitical risk premium from disappearing.

The near-term outlook is therefore highly uncertain. Oil may remain below recent highs while demand concerns dominate, but clearer evidence of severe export shortages could quickly reverse the decline.